CageIQ FAQ
What is CageIQ?
CageIQ publishes an AI win probability for every upcoming UFC fight, shows the betting market's price next to it, explains the matchup, and grades every pick in public after the event.
How accurate are CageIQ's UFC predictions?
In a blind test on 2,511 UFC fights from 2022 to 2026, the model picked the winner 63.5% of the time. Live picks are graded on the results page after every card.
Is CageIQ better than the betting odds?
No, and we publish that. On 2,331 fights with closing odds, the market's favourite won 69.2% of the time and CageIQ 63.8%. We show where the model disagrees with the market and why, as analysis.
How do I know you don't edit old picks?
Every pick goes into one public file (cageiq.app/ledger/picks.csv) that only ever grows. It is mirrored on GitHub (giliy/cageiq-ledger) and snapshotted by the Internet Archive after every update, so any change to history would be visible.
When are picks locked?
The official pick for a fight is the last one logged before 00:00 UTC on the event date. Fans playing Beat the AI lock at the same time.
What data does the model use?
Every UFC fight since 1994, round by round: significant strikes landed and absorbed, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts, plus ratings, finishing rates, layoffs, age, height and reach. It does not see news, injuries or fighters' records outside the UFC.
Why are UFC debut predictions close to 50%?
A fighter making a UFC debut has no UFC data yet, so the model has little to go on. Those fights are marked low confidence.
Is CageIQ betting advice?
No. Win chances are model estimates for analysis and entertainment. CageIQ does not take bets or sell picks. 18+ / 21+ where required.
Is it free?
Yes: win chances, breakdowns, fighter pages, email alerts, push notifications and Beat the AI are all free.