AI win chances for every UFC fight.Graded in public, win or lose.

Walker is the longer, more explosive fighter at 6'6" with an 82-inch reach, and he carries real finishing power: 0.74 knockdowns per 15 minutes and a 47% finish rate. Cortes Acosta is the busier, steadier striker, landing 4.74 significant strikes a minute to Walker's 3.73 with better defence (55% to 49%). Neither fighter wrestles much or controls opponents on the mat, with both at 9% control time, though Cortes Acosta's takedown defence (69%) is stronger. Walker has been knocked out four times, and Cortes Acosta never has.

Our model gives Cortes Acosta a slight edge, 53% to 47%. Three numbers drive that: his higher Elo (1611 to 1571), his stronger win rate (69% to 56%), and his edge in volume and defence. Walker's power and reach keep it close. The market is far more confident, putting Cortes Acosta at 68%, 15 points above us. The likeliest reason is Walker's knockout history, plus the short-notice booking after Sean Brady's injury, which the model can't weigh. Both men made weight for the five-round main event.

Key question: can Walker land one big shot early, or does Cortes Acosta's volume and durability take over across five rounds?

Suarez is the more dominant grappler on paper. She lands 3.07 significant strikes a minute and absorbs just 2.01, and she shoots 4.49 takedowns per 15 minutes, holding control for 64% of her fight time. Jandiroba is a different kind of grappler: her submission attempts (1.32 per 15) are double Suarez's, and she defends takedowns better (71% to 62%). She is outstruck in volume, though, landing 2.36 and absorbing 2.89. Suarez has a small edge in height and reach, and neither has ever been knocked out or submitted in the UFC. Both made weight, with Suarez at 115.5 and Jandiroba at 116, and the fight is on as scheduled.

Our model leans Suarez at 61%, and the market is close at 65%, so there is no real disagreement. Three numbers drive the lean: her striking margin, her control time, and her higher Elo (1660 to 1607). Age and layoff are in the model, and it may underweight them. Suarez is 35.9 and Jandiroba 38.4, and both are about seven months off. Jandiroba's 39% reflects real submission danger and strong takedown defence.

Key question: can Suarez get Jandiroba down and keep her there without walking into a submission?

Davey Grant is a 16-fight UFC veteran who throws more (5.42 significant strikes landed per minute against Elijah Smith's 3.54) but also absorbs more (3.99 against 2.30). Grant's wrestling is modest, and he has been submitted four times. Smith is a young grappler by the numbers: 1.60 takedowns and 0.93 submission attempts per 15 minutes, with 29% control time. He also has a small reach edge (71 inches to 69). Both made 135.5 pounds and the bantamweight bout is official.

Our model likes Smith at 77%, and the market is close at 74%. Three numbers drive it. Smith's age is 24 against Grant's nearly 41, Smith's striking differential is stronger, and Grant's submission losses give Smith a clear route to a finish. Smith has only three UFC fights, so his rates are blended toward league averages and the sample is small. His 80% smoothed win rate and 1573 Elo should be read with that in mind. Grant's long UFC résumé makes his profile more reliable. Both men are coming off layoffs of more than 190 days, which the model includes, though it may underweight how age affects a fighter's recovery.

Key question: can Grant keep this standing and win the volume battle, or does Smith get him to the mat?

Elekana and Fernando are the same height at 6'3", but they fight differently. Fernando is the volume striker with the better defence: he lands 4.53 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.39, while Elekana lands 2.89 and absorbs 3.50. Fernando also carries more knockdown power at 1.29 per 15 minutes, against 0.37 for Elekana, and he has three more inches of reach. Elekana's best routes are on the mat. He attempts more submissions and holds more control time, though his 0.98 takedowns per 15 minutes and 29% accuracy are modest. Fernando's takedown defence of 59% is not airtight. Both made weight, and the bout is official.

Our model gives Fernando 62%, driven by his striking differential, his defence (66% to 48%) and his knockdown rate. Elekana's 281 days off and age of 31 slightly weigh on him, though the model may underweight them. Fernando has only one UFC fight, so his numbers are a small sample. Per reports, he is a former LFA champion on a five-fight win streak who knocked out Rafael Tobias in his debut, which the model cannot see. That likely explains why the market is higher on Fernando, at 74%.

Key question: can Elekana drag Fernando into grappling exchanges, or does Fernando's volume and power take over on the feet?

Milosevic brings a cleaner, more composed striking game against a veteran who has absorbed a lot of punishment. Cachoeira lands a decent 4.23 significant strikes a minute but takes 7.00, and her 46% striking defence is poor. Milosevic's 63% defence and 3.77 landed against 3.35 absorbed show a much tighter profile, though that comes from just one UFC fight, so the sample is small. Cachoeira has a 67-inch height and 65-inch reach, and she has been submitted five times in 14 UFC fights. Milosevic's takedown numbers are modest, so the grappling threat is there but not proven. Per reports, Milosevic is a two-time IMMAF world champion who is 8-1 as a pro, and both women made weight.

Our model gives Milosevic 81%, and the market agrees exactly. The main drivers are the Elo gap (1522 to 1450), Cachoeira's 38% smoothed win rate with a three-fight losing streak, and the large gap in strikes absorbed per minute. Cachoeira's 154 days off and age of 38 also count against her, though the model may underweight them. Milosevic's profile is thin, so the number leans on Cachoeira's weaknesses as much as on Milosevic's strengths.

Key question: can Cachoeira's experience and 8-0 record outside the UFC make up for a defence that has leaked for 14 fights?

Marcos Degli is a UFC debutant, so the model has no UFC data on him. Per reports, he is a 26-year-old Brazilian flyweight with an extensive Muay Thai background, a 15-3 pre-UFC record, a 13-fight winning streak and 14 finishes in 15 wins. Mitch Raposo has four UFC fights and is on a two-fight streak. He lands 2.11 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.97, so he is not a volume striker. His takedown defence is 69%, his finish rate is 8%, and he gives up a few inches of reach (64) and has little knockout power. Raposo's profile is that of a grinder, not a finisher.

Our model leans Raposo at 61%, but this is low confidence. The pick rests almost entirely on Raposo's UFC numbers: his 50% smoothed win rate, a 1509 Elo, and a strikes-absorbed rate that is a bit high but never ended in a stoppage loss. The model cannot see Degli's regional résumé, so it likely treats him as a generic newcomer. The market disagrees by 29 points, favouring Degli at 68%, most likely because it prices in his finishing record and Muay Thai pedigree. Raposo's 141-day layoff is in the model, though it may be underweighted.

Key question: can Raposo's durability and takedown defence blunt a debutant who has finished almost everyone he has faced?

Both men arrive with a single UFC fight, so every rate here is heavily blended toward league averages and shouldn't be read as a real profile. On the numbers we have, the striking is nearly identical: Nakamura lands 3.28 significant strikes a minute to Schmid's 3.29, both at 40% accuracy. Nakamura has the better defence (60% to 51%) and the more dangerous hands, with 0.65 knockdowns per 15 minutes against 0.21. Schmid is the more active grappler, at 1.10 takedowns per 15 minutes and 16% control time. Per reports, he is a taekwondo black belt who went 4-2 as a pro, with three wins by KO or TKO, and he lost his short-notice UFC debut by first-round TKO.

Our model leans Nakamura at 54%, driven by his higher Elo (1528 to 1475), his better striking defence and his knockdown rate. Schmid's one recorded knockout loss also counts against him. The market is far more confident, at 76% for Nakamura, a gap of 22 points. The model only knows UFC fights, and with one bout each it has little to go on, so the market may be pricing in regional records or Nakamura's background that we can't see. Nakamura's 280-day layoff and Schmid's quick turnaround may also be underweighted.

Key question: can Schmid's grappling and activity blunt Nakamura's power, or does Nakamura's sharper defence and knockdown threat take over?

Gabriella Fernandes and Karine Silva set up as a classic striker-versus-grappler contrast. Fernandes lands more on the feet (3.48 significant strikes a minute to Silva's 2.42) but also absorbs a lot (4.96 a minute), and she has been knocked out once. Silva is the more dangerous finisher, with 1.25 submission attempts per 15 minutes and a 35% finish rate. Her takedown game (1.96 per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy) meets a defence that is only 43% for her, though Fernandes stops 68% of attempts. Reach and height are nearly even. Per reports, both made weight at 125 pounds.

Our model likes Silva at 69%, and the market is close at 67%, so there is no real disagreement. Three numbers drive it: Silva's better Elo (1558 to 1513), her much higher grappling output and control time (23% versus 7%), and the gap in strikes absorbed per minute (2.74 versus 4.96). Silva's 14-4 record outside the UFC also fits her finishing profile. Fernandes' main route is keeping the fight standing, where her volume leads. Both are coming off layoffs of about seven months, so that is a wash.

Key question: can Fernandes keep this on the feet and out-volume Silva, or does Silva get it to the mat and find a submission?

Delano is the busier, more accurate striker on paper: 5.22 significant strikes landed per minute at 58% accuracy, against Magomedov's 3.35 at 48%. Magomedov counters with grappling and finishing. He attempts 2.12 takedowns and 1.38 submissions per 15 minutes, and per reports all ten of his pre-UFC wins came by finish, capped by a 1:17 twister in his debut. Delano has the better takedown defence (73% to 65%) and a 16-3 pre-UFC record with LFA gold, per reports. Reach is even at 70 inches, and Magomedov is three years younger. Both made weight.

Our model leans Magomedov at 60%, but this is a thin read. Each man has only one UFC fight, so their numbers are heavily blended toward league averages and the sample is small. The drivers are Magomedov's slightly higher Elo (1529 to 1521), his far higher takedown and submission rates, his 50% finish rate against Delano's 17%, and his age and fresher layoff (140 days against 217). The market sees it differently, making Delano a slight favourite at 51%, a gap of 11 points. The likely reason is that the model only knows UFC fights, so it can't fully credit Delano's longer regional résumé and title run.

Key question: can Delano keep the fight standing and win the exchanges, or does Magomedov get it to the mat and find a finish?

Bashi brings a modest UFC profile into this one. He lands 2.19 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.64, so he is not winning the volume battle on average, and his 54% striking defence is unremarkable. He does push the wrestling, with 2.56 takedowns per 15 minutes, though he lands just 24% of them. He is shorter at 5'6" with a 70-inch reach, while Calderon is 5'11" with a 71-inch reach. Calderon, per reports, is a submission-heavy finisher who arrives as the Fury FC featherweight champion with an 11-4 (1 NC) record, and he took the fight on four days' notice for the injured Lucas Brennan. He made weight at 145.5 lb.

Our model leans Bashi at 68%, but with low confidence because it has no UFC data on Calderon. The lean rests on Bashi being five years younger (25.1 vs 30.7), coming off a normal 112-day layoff, and having a real UFC sample, even a small three-fight one that is heavily blended toward league averages. The market is at 84%, 16 points higher. It likely prices in Calderon's short-notice camp, which the model can't see.

Key question: can Calderon's submission game and size survive on four days' notice, or does Bashi's pressure and fresher preparation take over?

Petroski is a durable veteran who fights at a modest pace, landing 2.81 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 3.02. He has been knocked out four times and is on a three-fight skid. His takedown defence is strong at 80%, and he attempts a fair number of takedowns himself. Kondratavicius is the busier, sharper striker at 4.15 landed a minute on 61% accuracy, with more knockdown power. He is also three inches taller and two inches longer in reach. Per reports, he is a Lithuanian grappling and combat sambo champion who went 8-1 before the UFC. Keep in mind his UFC numbers come from a single fight, so that sample is small and heavily blended toward league averages.

Our model likes Kondratavicius at 70%, driven by his striking output and accuracy edge, Petroski's four knockout losses and current losing streak, and an age gap of about eight years (35 versus 27). The market is close at 74%, so there is no real disagreement. The model may underweight how much Petroski's age and recent form matter, and it only has one UFC fight to judge Kondratavicius by.

Key question: can Petroski's experience and takedown defence keep this a grind, or does Kondratavicius's volume and length wear him down?

Seokhyeon Ko and Wellington Turman meet at welterweight with very different profiles. Ko is the cleaner, more defensive striker: he lands about 3.1 significant strikes a minute and absorbs only 1.9, with 63% striking defence. Turman throws at a similar pace (3.2 landed) but takes 4.05 a minute and defends just 46%. Ko also looks to wrestle, attempting 2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes and holding 49% of control time, while Turman has been KO'd twice and submitted once. Turman has a slight edge in height and reach, but neither man finishes much in the UFC. Both made weight at 171 lbs, with no changes reported.

Our model likes Ko at 77%, driven by his gap in absorbed strikes (1.93 vs 4.05), his better striking defence, and his wrestling and control numbers. Turman is on a three-fight skid and returns after nearly three years away (1,071 days). The model includes that layoff, though it may underweight how much ring rust matters. The market is more confident in Ko at 84%, a gap of 7 points. Ko's sample is small at three UFC fights, so his numbers are blended toward league averages.

Key question: can Turman's size and 15-2 regional finishing background offset Ko's sharper defence and wrestling after such a long layoff?

Parsons brings pressure and power against a younger, much longer opponent. Both men have just one UFC fight, so their numbers are a small sample and sit close to league averages. Still, Parsons shows the sharper striking profile: 4.51 significant strikes landed per minute to Souza's 4.05, plus 1.35 knockdowns per 15 minutes against 0.12. Per reports, Parsons is a Muay Thai-based welterweight who stopped Danny Roberts in his debut. Souza, per reports, is 24, 6'3" and a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, with six knockout wins in his 9-1 record. Both made weight.

Our model leans Parsons at 55% mainly because of his striking edge, his better defence (63% to 56%) and his finishing record (50% to 17%). It knows about his 1,204 days away and his age of 35, but it may underweight how much three years out with injuries can erode a fighter. The market sees it very differently, making Souza 67%. The likely reasons are that layoff, the age gap and Souza's size, none of which the model can fully capture from one UFC fight each.

Key question: can Parsons's power land before the layoff and Souza's reach and youth take over?

Gane is the longer, cleaner striker here. He lands 5.24 significant strikes a minute and absorbs just 2.38, with 61% defence, and he has 3 inches of height and 8 inches of reach on Hokit. Hokit is the volume brawler: 7.95 landed a minute, but he absorbs 5.18 and defends only 49%. He also brings real power (1.08 knockdowns per 15 minutes) and a bigger wrestling game, with 1.43 takedowns per 15 and 26% control time against Gane's 10%. Hokit has only 4 UFC fights, so his rates are a small sample and partly blended toward league averages.

Our model leans Gane at 60% because of the gap in Elo (1696 to 1613), the large difference in strikes absorbed, and Gane's reach edge over 13 UFC fights. Hokit's youth (29 against 36.6) and his wrestling keep it from being more lopsided. The market is more confident at 67%, a 7-point gap that is under our threshold for calling a disagreement, so the two views are broadly aligned. Both fighters are coming off the same 154-day layoff, so that doesn't separate them.

Key question: can Gane keep Hokit at range and out of the clinch, or does Hokit close the distance and wrestle his way into a fight on his terms?

Nunes brings the far bigger UFC résumé: 18 fights, 4.46 significant strikes landed per minute against 2.50 absorbed, and real knockdown power at 0.56 per 15 minutes. Harrison's UFC sample is only three fights, so her numbers are heavily blended toward league averages and should be read as a small sample, not a full profile. What stands out is her control time share of 50% and her 1.81 strikes absorbed per minute. Nunes carries a 77% takedown defence, while Harrison's judo-based grappling is the obvious test of it. Both stand 68 inches, but Nunes has a 3-inch reach edge.

Our model leans Harrison at 59%, and the market is close at 63%, so there is no big disagreement. The drivers are Nunes's long layoff of 1,254 days, Harrison's recent form (a +3 streak against Nunes's +2), and Harrison's grappling control. Nunes's Elo of 1697 is higher than Harrison's 1587, so the model is not dismissing her. Age is similar, at 38.5 against 36.4. The model includes layoff and age, but it may underweight how much three-plus years away affects a fighter.

Key question: can Nunes keep the fight standing and use her power, or does Harrison's control take over?

Kevin Holland brings a lanky frame to this one: he stands 75 inches with an 81-inch reach, a full 10 inches of reach over Uros Medic. Both men land at a similar clip, about 4.5 to 4.8 significant strikes a minute, and neither wrestles much. Holland's takedown and control numbers are modest, and Medic's are lower still. The difference is power. Medic scores 2.43 knockdowns per 15 minutes against Holland's 0.34, and he finishes 65% of his fights to Holland's 38%. Holland has been submitted three times and knocked out twice, so he does give chances away.

Our model leans Medic at 57%, driven by three numbers: his sharper striking accuracy (56% to 48%), his knockdown rate, and his four-fight win streak. He is also fresher, with 106 days since his last fight against Holland's 218. Holland's 28 UFC fights give his profile a solid sample, while Medic's 11 are a smaller one. The betting market is close at 61% for Medic, so there is no big disagreement. Holland's age of 34 and longer layoff are in the model, though it may underweight them.

Key question: can Holland use his reach to keep Medic at range, or will Medic's power close the distance?

Bilal Hasan brings a finisher's profile into this one, though it rests on a single UFC fight, so his numbers are a small sample and heavily blended toward league averages. He lands 4.56 significant strikes a minute, absorbs 3.67 and throws knockdowns at a notable 0.83 per 15 minutes. Luis Gurule is the busier, more hittable fighter: 5.58 landed but 6.36 absorbed per minute, with almost no knockdown power and a 7% finish rate. Gurule is also shorter at 65 inches with a 64-inch reach, has been stopped once and submitted once, and offers little on the mat (20% takedown accuracy).

Our model leans Hasan at 77%, mainly because of the gap in strike differential (Hasan is slightly positive, Gurule is well in the red), Hasan's higher Elo (1528 vs 1434) and an eight-year age edge (25 vs 33). Gurule's 169-day layoff and recent losing streak don't help him. The market is higher on Hasan at 86%. A likely reason is that per reports he is 9-0 with eight finishes and a three-time CFFC champion, which the model can't see because it only knows UFC fights.

Key question: can Gurule's volume survive Hasan's power long enough to turn this into a grind, or does Hasan find an early finish?

Radtke and Thompson are close to opposites in how they work. Thompson is the volume striker, landing 4.01 significant strikes a minute to Radtke's 2.66, and he has three inches of height and reach on him. Radtke is the steadier all-rounder. He absorbs less (2.62 a minute vs 3.01), shoots 1.85 takedowns per 15 minutes at 41%, and holds control for 47% of his fight time. Thompson rarely wrestles and has defended only 63% of takedowns against Radtke's 75%. Both men have been knocked out twice, and Radtke's finish rate is higher (39% vs 27%).

Our model leans Radtke at 55%, mostly because of wrestling and control. His takedown game and 75% takedown defence give him a way to neutralise Thompson's range, and his 67% smoothed win rate and two-fight win streak beat Thompson's three-fight skid. Thompson's higher Elo (1575 vs 1545) keeps it close. The market sees it the other way, with Thompson at 54%, a nine-point gap. The likely reason is that Thompson's 22 UFC fights against top competition carry weight the model may undervalue. The model includes layoff and age, but may underweight Thompson's 490 days out and age of 43.8, as well as Radtke's age of 36.4 and 217 days off.

Key question: can Radtke get Thompson to the mat often enough to blunt his volume, or does Thompson's range keep the fight standing?

Chris Duncan and Drew Dober throw at nearly the same pace, about 4.4 significant strikes a minute each, and both absorb a little over 4 and defend about 53%. The gap is in how they get there. Duncan lands 46% of his strikes to Dober's 41%, and he is the far more active wrestler, attempting 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes against Dober's 0.65. Dober carries the bigger knockdown rate (0.65 vs 0.40) and a 45% finish rate, but he has been knocked out 3 times and submitted 4 in 26 UFC fights. Duncan has the size edge, with 2 inches of height and 1 inch of reach.

Our model gives Duncan 72%, and the market has him at 56%. That 16-point gap is large. The model leans on Duncan's better striking accuracy, his wrestling and control edge, and Dober's age of 38 plus his history of getting finished. The market may be giving more credit to Dober's 26-fight experience, his current two-fight win streak and his power, and the model may be underweighting his age and layoff, which are about 252 days for him and 224 for Duncan. Duncan is also coming off a loss.

Key question: can Duncan turn this into a grappling fight, or does Dober land his power first?

Jim Miller and Terrance McKinney are close to opposites in pace. McKinney throws at more than double Miller's rate, landing 6.54 significant strikes a minute to Miller's 2.93, with 55% accuracy and 0.99 knockdowns per 15 minutes. He also absorbs a lot (4.32 a minute, only 44% defence) and has been knocked out four times. Miller is the patient veteran with 46 UFC fights, a 43% finish rate and 1.68 submission attempts per 15 minutes, though he has been submitted three times. McKinney also wrestles more, with 2.52 takedowns per 15 minutes and 69% takedown defence against Miller's 49%. McKinney has the 2-inch height and reach edge.

Our model favours McKinney at 60%, mainly because of his output gap, his better takedown defence and the age difference of 43.2 versus 32.2. Miller's Elo of 1616 is higher than McKinney's 1532, which is why this is not more lopsided. The market is at 70%, 10 points more confident than we are. The model may underweight how age and Miller's 189-day layoff affect a 43-year-old, and it can't see camp or recent news.

Key question: Can Miller survive McKinney's early pressure long enough to drag him into a grappling fight?

Cesar Almeida is the taller man at 73 inches to Donte Johnson's 68, though their reach is identical at 74. Almeida lands a bit more on the feet (3.44 significant strikes a minute to 3.04) and is the more accurate striker at 58%, but he is also hit more often, with just 45% striking defence against Johnson's 60%. Johnson brings the wrestling: 1.70 takedowns per 15 minutes, 72% takedown defence and 26% control time, against Almeida's 52% takedown defence. Johnson's finish rate is 50% to Almeida's 31%.

Our model leans Johnson at 77% because of three things: his edge in striking defence, his clear grappling advantage, and a large age gap (27.8 versus 38.6), with Almeida also on a two-fight losing streak against Johnson's three straight wins. The market is far less sure, giving Johnson 58%, a 19-point gap. The likeliest reason is that the model only sees UFC fights, and Johnson has just three of them, so his numbers are a small sample blended toward league averages. The model does include age and layoff, but it may underweight how much Almeida's size and power can matter in a single exchange.

Key question: can Almeida keep the fight standing and use his height and accuracy, or does Johnson take him down and make age and grappling decide it?

Mesquita brings the sharper, more complete profile on paper. She lands about 3.9 significant strikes a minute and absorbs only 2.4, with 63% striking defence, while Chiasson lands 3.2, absorbs 2.8 and defends just 46%. Mesquita is also the more active grappler, with 2.3 takedowns and 1.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes, though Chiasson's 63% takedown defence is a bit better than hers. Chiasson owns the visible size edge, at 71 inches tall with a 72-inch reach, and has far more UFC experience with 14 fights. Mesquita's sample is only 3 fights, so her numbers are heavily blended toward league averages and shouldn't be read as a settled profile.

Our model likes Mesquita at 62% mainly because of the gap in striking defence, her better absorbed-to-landed ratio, and her finishing record (70% finish rate, never KO'd or submitted) against Chiasson's 34% and a current three-fight skid. The market is close at 66%, so there's no real disagreement. Chiasson's 259 days off and Mesquita's 147 are both in the model, though it may underweight them.

Key question: can Mesquita's volume and submission threat hold up against Chiasson's size, or does the reach edge make it a longer night than the numbers suggest?

Jared Gordon is the busier striker, landing 5.72 significant strikes a minute to Melquizael Costa's 4.17, and he leans on takedowns at nearly two per 15 minutes with 33% control time. Costa is the more dangerous finisher, with a 38% finish rate against Gordon's 18%, plus 0.80 submission attempts per 15 minutes and a bit more reach (71 inches to 68). Gordon has been knocked out four times and submitted twice in 17 UFC fights, which gives Costa clear paths to a finish. Both men are coming off losses.

Our model leans Costa at 68%, driven by three things: his higher Elo (1585 to 1525), his finishing threat, and the age gap of 30 against Gordon's 38. Gordon's volume and wrestling keep him live, and the model may underweight how much his experience matters. The market is more confident, at 78% for Costa. That 10-point gap likely reflects how much weight bettors put on Gordon's age and durability concerns, which our model only partly captures.

Key question: can Gordon's volume and wrestling control the pace for 15 minutes without walking into Costa's finishing chances?

Two heavy hitters meet here with different tools. Pereira lands more per minute (4.84 to 4.26) and is far more accurate (61% to 45%), but his striking defence is a modest 53%. Pavlovich counters with a huge knockdown rate (1.58 per 15 minutes against 0.71) and a five-inch reach edge (84 to 79 inches). Neither fighter is a serious grappler, though Pavlovich shoots more often (0.63 takedowns per 15 minutes) and holds more control time (13% to 3%). Both have been knocked out twice in the UFC, so either can end it with one clean shot.

Our model leans Pavlovich at 57%, driven mostly by three things: his knockdown power, his reach advantage, and a five-year age gap (Pereira is 39.4, Pavlovich 34.6). Pereira is on a one-fight losing skid while Pavlovich has won three straight. Elo ratings are nearly even (1665 to 1644), so this is a modest lean. The market is more confident at 64% for Pavlovich, a gap of 7 points that is within normal range. Pereira's accuracy edge is the main reason the model doesn't go further, and the model may underweight how age affects a fighter's chin and speed.

Key question: can Pereira close the reach gap and land clean first, or does Pavlovich's power from range decide it?

Nickal and Pyfer both come in with real finishing threat, but they get there differently. Nickal is the more efficient striker, landing 59% of his significant strikes, absorbing just 2.29 a minute, and defending at 59%. He also brings the better wrestling: 2.11 takedowns per 15 minutes, 82% takedown defence and 31% control time. Pyfer lands slightly more volume (3.49 a minute) and carries more knockdown power at 0.91 per 15 minutes, but he is hittable, absorbing 3.33 a minute, and his takedown defence is 66%. The two are close in size, with Pyfer an inch taller and Nickal owning a one-inch reach edge.

Our model leans Pyfer at 58%, mainly because of his higher Elo (1631 to 1594), his four-fight win streak, and his knockdown rate. Nickal's cleaner striking and grappling numbers keep this close, and the one time he was KO'd is a flag against a power puncher. Pyfer's 260-day layoff and Nickal's 182 are factored in, though the model may underweight them. No market line is available for comparison.

Key question: can Nickal get Pyfer to the mat early enough to avoid his power, or does Pyfer's punching find him first?

This one pits Saint Denis's pressure and volume against Salkilld's cleaner defence and size. Saint Denis lands more per minute (5.24 to 4.01) but absorbs far more (3.97 to 2.46) and has only 43% striking defence against Salkilld's 51%. Both men chase takedowns at a high rate, about 3.7 per 15 minutes for Saint Denis and 4.2 for Salkilld, and both defend them at around 70%, so wrestling may cancel out. Saint Denis has been knocked out twice and submitted once, while Salkilld has never been finished in the UFC. Salkilld is also taller, with two more inches of reach, and four years younger.

Our model gives Salkilld 68%, and the betting market matches it exactly. The biggest drivers are his better damage ratio (landing far more than he absorbs), his unbeaten six-fight streak against Saint Denis's most recent loss, and his slightly higher Elo (1649 to 1623). Salkilld has only six UFC fights, so his numbers carry a bit more uncertainty than Saint Denis's 13-fight profile. Saint Denis's finishing record (63%) and knockdown power keep him live, but the model sees the defensive gap as the larger factor.

Key question: can Saint Denis land his power and pressure early before Salkilld's sharper defence and reach take over?