CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba prediction
UFC Vegas 124 · Sunday, November 8, 2026. Our model gives Tatiana Suarez a 61% chance to win.
Breakdown
Suarez is the more dominant grappler on paper. She lands 3.07 significant strikes a minute and absorbs just 2.01, and she shoots 4.49 takedowns per 15 minutes, holding control for 64% of her fight time. Jandiroba is a different kind of grappler: her submission attempts (1.32 per 15) are double Suarez's, and she defends takedowns better (71% to 62%). She is outstruck in volume, though, landing 2.36 and absorbing 2.89. Suarez has a small edge in height and reach, and neither has ever been knocked out or submitted in the UFC. Both made weight, with Suarez at 115.5 and Jandiroba at 116, and the fight is on as scheduled.
Our model leans Suarez at 61%, and the market is close at 65%, so there is no real disagreement. Three numbers drive the lean: her striking margin, her control time, and her higher Elo (1660 to 1607). Age and layoff are in the model, and it may underweight them. Suarez is 35.9 and Jandiroba 38.4, and both are about seven months off. Jandiroba's 39% reflects real submission danger and strong takedown defence.
Key question: can Suarez get Jandiroba down and keep her there without walking into a submission?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Tatiana Suarez by decision (42%).
KO / TKO11%
Suarez 6%Jandiroba 5%market 11%
Submission24%
Suarez 13%Jandiroba 11%market 21%
Decision65%
Suarez 42%Jandiroba 23%market 68%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years. Market numbers are sportsbooks' method-of-victory prices with the margin removed.
What the market says
| Suarez | Jandiroba | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 61% | 39% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (Pinnacle, no vig) | 64% | 36% |
| Kalshi$42k traded | 64% | 36% |
| Polymarket$10k traded | 65% | 36% |
Across 17 sportsbooks, Suarez is priced between 63% and 65%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Suarez1.54 (−185)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 1.51 at DraftKings. Typical price 1.49.
Jandiroba2.78 (+178)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 2.68 at FanDuel. Typical price 2.65.
All 17 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Suarez | Jandiroba |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | UK/EU | 1.47 | 2.65 |
| BetRivers | US | 1.48 | 2.65 |
| Betclic | France | 1.43 | 2.60 |
| Betfair Exchange | UK/EU | 1.54 | 2.78 |
| Betsson | EU | 1.46 | 2.65 |
| Coolbet | EU | 1.49 | 2.71 |
| DraftKings | US | 1.51 | 2.64 |
| FanDuel | US | 1.50 | 2.68 |
| NordicBet | EU | 1.48 | 2.73 |
| PMU | France | 1.48 | 2.65 |
| Winamax | France | 1.46 | 2.50 |
| BetAnySports | — | 1.51 | 2.65 |
| BetOnline | — | 1.51 | 2.65 |
| BetUS | — | 1.51 | 2.62 |
| Bovada | — | 1.51 | 2.68 |
| Marathonbet | — | 1.47 | 2.60 |
| Pinnacle | — | 1.52 | 2.71 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Fight-week news
Both fighters made weight, with Suarez at 115.5 and Jandiroba at 116, and the strawweight co-main is proceeding as scheduled with no replacement or injury reported.
Checked 2026-11-07 · sports.yahoo.com · middleeasy.com
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
 Tatiana Suarez | Virna Jandiroba | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | WWLWW | WLWWW |
| Record outside the UFC | 3-0, 2 finishes | 14-0, 11 finishes |
| UFC record | 9-1 | 9-4 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1660 | 1607 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.07 | 2.36 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.01 | 2.89 |
| Striking accuracy | 58% | 42% |
| Striking defence | 45% | 56% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 4.49 | 2.98 |
| Takedown defence | 62% | 71% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.65 | 1.32 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Finish rate | 54% | 30% |
| Streak | W2 | W1 |
| Days since last fight | 211 | 218 |
| Age | 36 | 38 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'3" |
| Reach | 66" | 64" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.