UFC Vegas 124 predictions

Milosevic brings a cleaner, more composed striking game against a veteran who has absorbed a lot of punishment. Cachoeira lands a decent 4.23 significant strikes a minute but takes 7.00, and her 46% striking defence is poor. Milosevic's 63% defence and 3.77 landed against 3.35 absorbed show a much tighter profile, though that comes from just one UFC fight, so the sample is small. Cachoeira has a 67-inch height and 65-inch reach, and she has been submitted five times in 14 UFC fights. Milosevic's takedown numbers are modest, so the grappling threat is there but not proven. Per reports, Milosevic is a two-time IMMAF world champion who is 8-1 as a pro, and both women made weight.

Our model gives Milosevic 81%, and the market agrees exactly. The main drivers are the Elo gap (1522 to 1450), Cachoeira's 38% smoothed win rate with a three-fight losing streak, and the large gap in strikes absorbed per minute. Cachoeira's 154 days off and age of 38 also count against her, though the model may underweight them. Milosevic's profile is thin, so the number leans on Cachoeira's weaknesses as much as on Milosevic's strengths.

Key question: can Cachoeira's experience and 8-0 record outside the UFC make up for a defence that has leaked for 14 fights?

Both men arrive with a single UFC fight, so every rate here is heavily blended toward league averages and shouldn't be read as a real profile. On the numbers we have, the striking is nearly identical: Nakamura lands 3.28 significant strikes a minute to Schmid's 3.29, both at 40% accuracy. Nakamura has the better defence (60% to 51%) and the more dangerous hands, with 0.65 knockdowns per 15 minutes against 0.21. Schmid is the more active grappler, at 1.10 takedowns per 15 minutes and 16% control time. Per reports, he is a taekwondo black belt who went 4-2 as a pro, with three wins by KO or TKO, and he lost his short-notice UFC debut by first-round TKO.

Our model leans Nakamura at 54%, driven by his higher Elo (1528 to 1475), his better striking defence and his knockdown rate. Schmid's one recorded knockout loss also counts against him. The market is far more confident, at 76% for Nakamura, a gap of 22 points. The model only knows UFC fights, and with one bout each it has little to go on, so the market may be pricing in regional records or Nakamura's background that we can't see. Nakamura's 280-day layoff and Schmid's quick turnaround may also be underweighted.

Key question: can Schmid's grappling and activity blunt Nakamura's power, or does Nakamura's sharper defence and knockdown threat take over?

Gabriella Fernandes and Karine Silva set up as a classic striker-versus-grappler contrast. Fernandes lands more on the feet (3.48 significant strikes a minute to Silva's 2.42) but also absorbs a lot (4.96 a minute), and she has been knocked out once. Silva is the more dangerous finisher, with 1.25 submission attempts per 15 minutes and a 35% finish rate. Her takedown game (1.96 per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy) meets a defence that is only 43% for her, though Fernandes stops 68% of attempts. Reach and height are nearly even. Per reports, both made weight at 125 pounds.

Our model likes Silva at 69%, and the market is close at 67%, so there is no real disagreement. Three numbers drive it: Silva's better Elo (1558 to 1513), her much higher grappling output and control time (23% versus 7%), and the gap in strikes absorbed per minute (2.74 versus 4.96). Silva's 14-4 record outside the UFC also fits her finishing profile. Fernandes' main route is keeping the fight standing, where her volume leads. Both are coming off layoffs of about seven months, so that is a wash.

Key question: can Fernandes keep this on the feet and out-volume Silva, or does Silva get it to the mat and find a submission?

Delano is the busier, more accurate striker on paper: 5.22 significant strikes landed per minute at 58% accuracy, against Magomedov's 3.35 at 48%. Magomedov counters with grappling and finishing. He attempts 2.12 takedowns and 1.38 submissions per 15 minutes, and per reports all ten of his pre-UFC wins came by finish, capped by a 1:17 twister in his debut. Delano has the better takedown defence (73% to 65%) and a 16-3 pre-UFC record with LFA gold, per reports. Reach is even at 70 inches, and Magomedov is three years younger. Both made weight.

Our model leans Magomedov at 60%, but this is a thin read. Each man has only one UFC fight, so their numbers are heavily blended toward league averages and the sample is small. The drivers are Magomedov's slightly higher Elo (1529 to 1521), his far higher takedown and submission rates, his 50% finish rate against Delano's 17%, and his age and fresher layoff (140 days against 217). The market sees it differently, making Delano a slight favourite at 51%, a gap of 11 points. The likely reason is that the model only knows UFC fights, so it can't fully credit Delano's longer regional résumé and title run.

Key question: can Delano keep the fight standing and win the exchanges, or does Magomedov get it to the mat and find a finish?

Bashi brings a modest UFC profile into this one. He lands 2.19 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.64, so he is not winning the volume battle on average, and his 54% striking defence is unremarkable. He does push the wrestling, with 2.56 takedowns per 15 minutes, though he lands just 24% of them. He is shorter at 5'6" with a 70-inch reach, while Calderon is 5'11" with a 71-inch reach. Calderon, per reports, is a submission-heavy finisher who arrives as the Fury FC featherweight champion with an 11-4 (1 NC) record, and he took the fight on four days' notice for the injured Lucas Brennan. He made weight at 145.5 lb.

Our model leans Bashi at 68%, but with low confidence because it has no UFC data on Calderon. The lean rests on Bashi being five years younger (25.1 vs 30.7), coming off a normal 112-day layoff, and having a real UFC sample, even a small three-fight one that is heavily blended toward league averages. The market is at 84%, 16 points higher. It likely prices in Calderon's short-notice camp, which the model can't see.

Key question: can Calderon's submission game and size survive on four days' notice, or does Bashi's pressure and fresher preparation take over?

Petroski is a durable veteran who fights at a modest pace, landing 2.81 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 3.02. He has been knocked out four times and is on a three-fight skid. His takedown defence is strong at 80%, and he attempts a fair number of takedowns himself. Kondratavicius is the busier, sharper striker at 4.15 landed a minute on 61% accuracy, with more knockdown power. He is also three inches taller and two inches longer in reach. Per reports, he is a Lithuanian grappling and combat sambo champion who went 8-1 before the UFC. Keep in mind his UFC numbers come from a single fight, so that sample is small and heavily blended toward league averages.

Our model likes Kondratavicius at 70%, driven by his striking output and accuracy edge, Petroski's four knockout losses and current losing streak, and an age gap of about eight years (35 versus 27). The market is close at 74%, so there is no real disagreement. The model may underweight how much Petroski's age and recent form matter, and it only has one UFC fight to judge Kondratavicius by.

Key question: can Petroski's experience and takedown defence keep this a grind, or does Kondratavicius's volume and length wear him down?

Seokhyeon Ko and Wellington Turman meet at welterweight with very different profiles. Ko is the cleaner, more defensive striker: he lands about 3.1 significant strikes a minute and absorbs only 1.9, with 63% striking defence. Turman throws at a similar pace (3.2 landed) but takes 4.05 a minute and defends just 46%. Ko also looks to wrestle, attempting 2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes and holding 49% of control time, while Turman has been KO'd twice and submitted once. Turman has a slight edge in height and reach, but neither man finishes much in the UFC. Both made weight at 171 lbs, with no changes reported.

Our model likes Ko at 77%, driven by his gap in absorbed strikes (1.93 vs 4.05), his better striking defence, and his wrestling and control numbers. Turman is on a three-fight skid and returns after nearly three years away (1,071 days). The model includes that layoff, though it may underweight how much ring rust matters. The market is more confident in Ko at 84%, a gap of 7 points. Ko's sample is small at three UFC fights, so his numbers are blended toward league averages.

Key question: can Turman's size and 15-2 regional finishing background offset Ko's sharper defence and wrestling after such a long layoff?

Parsons brings pressure and power against a younger, much longer opponent. Both men have just one UFC fight, so their numbers are a small sample and sit close to league averages. Still, Parsons shows the sharper striking profile: 4.51 significant strikes landed per minute to Souza's 4.05, plus 1.35 knockdowns per 15 minutes against 0.12. Per reports, Parsons is a Muay Thai-based welterweight who stopped Danny Roberts in his debut. Souza, per reports, is 24, 6'3" and a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, with six knockout wins in his 9-1 record. Both made weight.

Our model leans Parsons at 55% mainly because of his striking edge, his better defence (63% to 56%) and his finishing record (50% to 17%). It knows about his 1,204 days away and his age of 35, but it may underweight how much three years out with injuries can erode a fighter. The market sees it very differently, making Souza 67%. The likely reasons are that layoff, the age gap and Souza's size, none of which the model can fully capture from one UFC fight each.

Key question: can Parsons's power land before the layoff and Souza's reach and youth take over?

Walker is the longer, more explosive fighter at 6'6" with an 82-inch reach, and he carries real finishing power: 0.74 knockdowns per 15 minutes and a 47% finish rate. Cortes Acosta is the busier, steadier striker, landing 4.74 significant strikes a minute to Walker's 3.73 with better defence (55% to 49%). Neither fighter wrestles much or controls opponents on the mat, with both at 9% control time, though Cortes Acosta's takedown defence (69%) is stronger. Walker has been knocked out four times, and Cortes Acosta never has.

Our model gives Cortes Acosta a slight edge, 53% to 47%. Three numbers drive that: his higher Elo (1611 to 1571), his stronger win rate (69% to 56%), and his edge in volume and defence. Walker's power and reach keep it close. The market is far more confident, putting Cortes Acosta at 68%, 15 points above us. The likeliest reason is Walker's knockout history, plus the short-notice booking after Sean Brady's injury, which the model can't weigh. Both men made weight for the five-round main event.

Key question: can Walker land one big shot early, or does Cortes Acosta's volume and durability take over across five rounds?

Suarez is the more dominant grappler on paper. She lands 3.07 significant strikes a minute and absorbs just 2.01, and she shoots 4.49 takedowns per 15 minutes, holding control for 64% of her fight time. Jandiroba is a different kind of grappler: her submission attempts (1.32 per 15) are double Suarez's, and she defends takedowns better (71% to 62%). She is outstruck in volume, though, landing 2.36 and absorbing 2.89. Suarez has a small edge in height and reach, and neither has ever been knocked out or submitted in the UFC. Both made weight, with Suarez at 115.5 and Jandiroba at 116, and the fight is on as scheduled.

Our model leans Suarez at 61%, and the market is close at 65%, so there is no real disagreement. Three numbers drive the lean: her striking margin, her control time, and her higher Elo (1660 to 1607). Age and layoff are in the model, and it may underweight them. Suarez is 35.9 and Jandiroba 38.4, and both are about seven months off. Jandiroba's 39% reflects real submission danger and strong takedown defence.

Key question: can Suarez get Jandiroba down and keep her there without walking into a submission?

Davey Grant is a 16-fight UFC veteran who throws more (5.42 significant strikes landed per minute against Elijah Smith's 3.54) but also absorbs more (3.99 against 2.30). Grant's wrestling is modest, and he has been submitted four times. Smith is a young grappler by the numbers: 1.60 takedowns and 0.93 submission attempts per 15 minutes, with 29% control time. He also has a small reach edge (71 inches to 69). Both made 135.5 pounds and the bantamweight bout is official.

Our model likes Smith at 77%, and the market is close at 74%. Three numbers drive it. Smith's age is 24 against Grant's nearly 41, Smith's striking differential is stronger, and Grant's submission losses give Smith a clear route to a finish. Smith has only three UFC fights, so his rates are blended toward league averages and the sample is small. His 80% smoothed win rate and 1573 Elo should be read with that in mind. Grant's long UFC résumé makes his profile more reliable. Both men are coming off layoffs of more than 190 days, which the model includes, though it may underweight how age affects a fighter's recovery.

Key question: can Grant keep this standing and win the volume battle, or does Smith get him to the mat?

Elekana and Fernando are the same height at 6'3", but they fight differently. Fernando is the volume striker with the better defence: he lands 4.53 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.39, while Elekana lands 2.89 and absorbs 3.50. Fernando also carries more knockdown power at 1.29 per 15 minutes, against 0.37 for Elekana, and he has three more inches of reach. Elekana's best routes are on the mat. He attempts more submissions and holds more control time, though his 0.98 takedowns per 15 minutes and 29% accuracy are modest. Fernando's takedown defence of 59% is not airtight. Both made weight, and the bout is official.

Our model gives Fernando 62%, driven by his striking differential, his defence (66% to 48%) and his knockdown rate. Elekana's 281 days off and age of 31 slightly weigh on him, though the model may underweight them. Fernando has only one UFC fight, so his numbers are a small sample. Per reports, he is a former LFA champion on a five-fight win streak who knocked out Rafael Tobias in his debut, which the model cannot see. That likely explains why the market is higher on Fernando, at 74%.

Key question: can Elekana drag Fernando into grappling exchanges, or does Fernando's volume and power take over on the feet?

Marcos Degli is a UFC debutant, so the model has no UFC data on him. Per reports, he is a 26-year-old Brazilian flyweight with an extensive Muay Thai background, a 15-3 pre-UFC record, a 13-fight winning streak and 14 finishes in 15 wins. Mitch Raposo has four UFC fights and is on a two-fight streak. He lands 2.11 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.97, so he is not a volume striker. His takedown defence is 69%, his finish rate is 8%, and he gives up a few inches of reach (64) and has little knockout power. Raposo's profile is that of a grinder, not a finisher.

Our model leans Raposo at 61%, but this is low confidence. The pick rests almost entirely on Raposo's UFC numbers: his 50% smoothed win rate, a 1509 Elo, and a strikes-absorbed rate that is a bit high but never ended in a stoppage loss. The model cannot see Degli's regional résumé, so it likely treats him as a generic newcomer. The market disagrees by 29 points, favouring Degli at 68%, most likely because it prices in his finishing record and Muay Thai pedigree. Raposo's 141-day layoff is in the model, though it may be underweighted.

Key question: can Raposo's durability and takedown defence blunt a debutant who has finished almost everyone he has faced?