CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith prediction
UFC Vegas 124 · Sunday, November 8, 2026. Our model gives Elijah Smith a 77% chance to win.
Breakdown
Davey Grant is a 16-fight UFC veteran who throws more (5.42 significant strikes landed per minute against Elijah Smith's 3.54) but also absorbs more (3.99 against 2.30). Grant's wrestling is modest, and he has been submitted four times. Smith is a young grappler by the numbers: 1.60 takedowns and 0.93 submission attempts per 15 minutes, with 29% control time. He also has a small reach edge (71 inches to 69). Both made 135.5 pounds and the bantamweight bout is official.
Our model likes Smith at 77%, and the market is close at 74%. Three numbers drive it. Smith's age is 24 against Grant's nearly 41, Smith's striking differential is stronger, and Grant's submission losses give Smith a clear route to a finish. Smith has only three UFC fights, so his rates are blended toward league averages and the sample is small. His 80% smoothed win rate and 1573 Elo should be read with that in mind. Grant's long UFC résumé makes his profile more reliable. Both men are coming off layoffs of more than 190 days, which the model includes, though it may underweight how age affects a fighter's recovery.
Key question: can Grant keep this standing and win the volume battle, or does Smith get him to the mat?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Elijah Smith by submission (33%).
KO / TKO26%
Grant 7%Smith 20%market 40%
Submission35%
Grant 2%Smith 33%market 21%
Decision38%
Grant 14%Smith 24%market 39%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years. Market numbers are sportsbooks' method-of-victory prices with the margin removed.
What the market says
| Grant | Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 23% | 77% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (Pinnacle, no vig) | 25% | 75% |
| Kalshi$50k traded | 25% | 75% |
| Polymarket$45k traded | 26% | 75% |
Across 16 sportsbooks, Grant is priced between 25% and 29%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Grant3.75 (+275)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 3.70 at DraftKings. Typical price 3.58.
Smith1.34 (−294)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 1.33 at BetRivers. Typical price 1.30.
All 16 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Grant | Smith |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | US | 3.35 | 1.33 |
| Betclic | France | 3.45 | 1.27 |
| Betfair Exchange | UK/EU | 3.75 | 1.34 |
| Betsson | EU | 3.65 | 1.27 |
| Coolbet | EU | 3.55 | 1.32 |
| DraftKings | US | 3.70 | 1.29 |
| FanDuel | US | 3.65 | 1.30 |
| NordicBet | EU | 3.70 | 1.29 |
| PMU | France | 3.35 | 1.33 |
| Winamax | France | 3.15 | 1.27 |
| BetAnySports | — | 3.40 | 1.32 |
| BetOnline | — | 3.54 | 1.32 |
| BetUS | — | 3.61 | 1.31 |
| Bovada | — | 3.60 | 1.31 |
| Marathonbet | — | 3.40 | 1.30 |
| Pinnacle | — | 3.86 | 1.30 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Fight-week news
Davey Grant and Elijah Smith both weighed in at 135.5 lbs and the bantamweight bout is official for UFC Vegas 124.
Checked 2026-11-07 · sports.yahoo.com · bjpenn.com
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Davey Grant | Elijah Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | WLWWL | WWW |
| Record outside the UFC | 9-1, 9 finishes | — |
| UFC record | 9-7 | 3-0 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1537 | 1573 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 5.42 | 3.54 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.98 | 2.30 |
| Striking accuracy | 46% | 52% |
| Striking defence | 55% | 53% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 0.97 | 1.60 |
| Takedown defence | 65% | 54% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.18 | 0.93 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| Finish rate | 25% | 50% |
| Streak | W1 | W3 |
| Days since last fight | 197 | 239 |
| Age | 41 | 24 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'9" |
| Reach | 69" | 71" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.