CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov prediction
UFC Vegas 124 · Saturday, November 7, 2026. Our model gives Murtazali Magomedov a 60% chance to win.
Breakdown
Delano is the busier, more accurate striker on paper: 5.22 significant strikes landed per minute at 58% accuracy, against Magomedov's 3.35 at 48%. Magomedov counters with grappling and finishing. He attempts 2.12 takedowns and 1.38 submissions per 15 minutes, and per reports all ten of his pre-UFC wins came by finish, capped by a 1:17 twister in his debut. Delano has the better takedown defence (73% to 65%) and a 16-3 pre-UFC record with LFA gold, per reports. Reach is even at 70 inches, and Magomedov is three years younger. Both made weight.
Our model leans Magomedov at 60%, but this is a thin read. Each man has only one UFC fight, so their numbers are heavily blended toward league averages and the sample is small. The drivers are Magomedov's slightly higher Elo (1529 to 1521), his far higher takedown and submission rates, his 50% finish rate against Delano's 17%, and his age and fresher layoff (140 days against 217). The market sees it differently, making Delano a slight favourite at 51%, a gap of 11 points. The likely reason is that the model only knows UFC fights, so it can't fully credit Delano's longer regional résumé and title run.
Key question: can Delano keep the fight standing and win the exchanges, or does Magomedov get it to the mat and find a finish?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Murtazali Magomedov by decision (24%).
KO / TKO27%
Delano 12%Magomedov 16%market 29%
Submission26%
Delano 6%Magomedov 20%market 31%
Decision46%
Delano 22%Magomedov 24%market 40%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years. Market numbers are sportsbooks' method-of-victory prices with the margin removed.
What the market says
| Delano | Magomedov | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 40% | 60% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (Pinnacle, no vig)opened 51% on Nov 7 | 53% | 47% |
| Kalshi$88k traded | 53% | 48% |
| Polymarket$60k traded | 53% | 48% |
Across 12 sportsbooks, Delano is priced between 50% and 53%.
Line moved 2 pts toward Delano
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Delano1.90 (−111)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 1.85 at FanDuel. Typical price 1.83.
Magomedov2.08 (+108)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 2.02 at DraftKings. Typical price 2.00.
All 12 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Delano | Magomedov |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | UK/EU | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| BetRivers | US | 1.83 | 1.97 |
| Betfair Exchange | UK/EU | 1.90 | 2.08 |
| Coolbet | EU | 1.88 | 1.97 |
| DraftKings | US | 1.82 | 2.02 |
| FanDuel | US | 1.85 | 2.00 |
| BetAnySports | — | 1.80 | 1.95 |
| BetOnline | — | 1.82 | 2.05 |
| BetUS | — | 1.83 | 2.00 |
| Bovada | — | 1.82 | 2.02 |
| Marathonbet | — | 1.84 | 1.86 |
| Pinnacle | — | 1.83 | 2.07 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Fight-week news
Both fighters made weight at the official weigh-ins and the featherweight bout is on for UFC Vegas 124 on Nov. 7.
Checked 2026-11-07 · bjpenn.com · sports.yahoo.com
Before the UFC
Jose Delano · 16-3 before the UFC
4 KO/TKO · 5 submission wins
Brazilian featherweight Jose Delano went 16-3 before the UFC, with a five-fight win streak that included LFA gold and a Contender Series decision. He beat Robert Ruchala by decision on his UFC debut and is now the far more experienced fighter against the unbeaten Murtazali Magomedov.
Background: Former LFA champion · Shooto Brasil champion · Former Brazilian Army cavalry soldier
Fought in: LFA, Dana White's Contender Series, Shooto Brasil
AI web research 2026-11-07 · medium confidence · fightomic.com · cbssports.com · fightmatrix.com
Murtazali Magomedov · 10-0 before the UFC
5 KO/TKO · 5 submission wins
Magomedov is an unbeaten Kyrgyz featherweight who went 10-0 before the UFC, with every win by finish. He won his UFC debut by twister submission in 1:17 over Melsik Baghdasaryan at UFC Vegas 119 on 2026-06-20.
Background: Fightomic's profile mentions regional title fights, but I couldn't confirm which titles.
Fought in: Dana White's Contender Series
AI web research 2026-11-07 · medium confidence · espn.com · fightomic.com · thebodylockmma.com
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Jose Delano | Murtazali Magomedov | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | W | W |
| UFC record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1521 | 1529 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 5.22 | 3.35 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.88 | 3.22 |
| Striking accuracy | 58% | 48% |
| Striking defence | 64% | 59% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 0.65 | 2.12 |
| Takedown defence | 73% | 65% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.25 | 1.38 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| Finish rate | 17% | 50% |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Days since last fight | 217 | 140 |
| Age | 30 | 27 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'9" |
| Reach | 70" | 70" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.