CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Nina Milosevic vs Priscila Cachoeira prediction
UFC Vegas 124 · Saturday, November 7, 2026. Our model gives Nina Milosevic a 81% chance to win.
Breakdown
Milosevic brings a cleaner, more composed striking game against a veteran who has absorbed a lot of punishment. Cachoeira lands a decent 4.23 significant strikes a minute but takes 7.00, and her 46% striking defence is poor. Milosevic's 63% defence and 3.77 landed against 3.35 absorbed show a much tighter profile, though that comes from just one UFC fight, so the sample is small. Cachoeira has a 67-inch height and 65-inch reach, and she has been submitted five times in 14 UFC fights. Milosevic's takedown numbers are modest, so the grappling threat is there but not proven. Per reports, Milosevic is a two-time IMMAF world champion who is 8-1 as a pro, and both women made weight.
Our model gives Milosevic 81%, and the market agrees exactly. The main drivers are the Elo gap (1522 to 1450), Cachoeira's 38% smoothed win rate with a three-fight losing streak, and the large gap in strikes absorbed per minute. Cachoeira's 154 days off and age of 38 also count against her, though the model may underweight them. Milosevic's profile is thin, so the number leans on Cachoeira's weaknesses as much as on Milosevic's strengths.
Key question: can Cachoeira's experience and 8-0 record outside the UFC make up for a defence that has leaked for 14 fights?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Nina Milosevic by submission (31%).
KO / TKO29%
Milosevic 23%Cachoeira 6%market 43%
Submission33%
Milosevic 31%Cachoeira 2%market 35%
Decision38%
Milosevic 27%Cachoeira 11%market 22%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years. Market numbers are sportsbooks' method-of-victory prices with the margin removed.
What the market says
| Milosevic | Cachoeira | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 81% | 19% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (Pinnacle, no vig) | 81% | 19% |
| Kalshi$186k traded | 82% | 18% |
| Polymarket$12k traded | 83% | 18% |
Across 17 sportsbooks, Milosevic is priced between 78% and 82%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Milosevic1.21 (−476)at BetRivers · US →Typical price 1.20.
Cachoeira5.50 (+450)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 5.30 at FanDuel. Typical price 4.85.
All 17 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Milosevic | Cachoeira |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | UK/EU | 1.18 | 4.80 |
| BetRivers | US | 1.21 | 4.35 |
| Betclic | France | 1.15 | 4.75 |
| Betfair Exchange | UK/EU | 1.21 | 5.50 |
| Betsson | EU | 1.17 | 4.90 |
| Coolbet | EU | 1.20 | 4.85 |
| DraftKings | US | 1.19 | 4.90 |
| FanDuel | US | 1.17 | 5.30 |
| NordicBet | EU | 1.18 | 5.00 |
| PMU | France | 1.21 | 4.35 |
| Winamax | France | 1.15 | 4.00 |
| BetAnySports | — | 1.20 | 4.20 |
| BetOnline | — | 1.20 | 4.94 |
| BetUS | — | 1.20 | 4.74 |
| Bovada | — | 1.20 | 4.85 |
| Marathonbet | — | 1.16 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | — | 1.20 | 5.09 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Fight-week news
Both fighters made the 136-lb bantamweight limit at the UFC Vegas 124 weigh-ins and the fight is on.
Checked 2026-11-07 · mmasucka.com · clutchpoints.com
Before the UFC
Nina Milosevic · 8-1 before the UFC
3 KO/TKO · 2 submission wins
Milošević is a decorated IMMAF amateur who lost her pro debut by split decision to Cecilie Bolander in Nov 2023. She then won 8 straight, reaching 8-1 before signing with the UFC as the first Serbian woman. She won her UFC debut by TKO over Hailey Cowan on Aug 1, 2026. The pre-UFC finish split (3 KO/TKO, 2 submission) is inferred by subtracting her UFC KO win from the 4 KO/2 sub total on Fightomic.
Background: IMMAF World Champion 2021 · IMMAF World Champion 2022 (per MMA Prospect Vault) · IMMAF European Champion 2022
Fought in: Superior Challenge, Brave CF, TFC, WAR
AI web research 2026-11-07 · medium confidence · immaf.org · fightomic.com · mmaprospectvault.com
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Nina Milosevic | Priscila Cachoeira | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | W | LLLWL |
| Record outside the UFC | — | 8-0, 4 finishes |
| UFC record | 1-0 | 5-9 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1522 | 1450 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.77 | 4.23 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.35 | 7.00 |
| Striking accuracy | 49% | 44% |
| Striking defence | 63% | 46% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 1.04 | 0.47 |
| Takedown defence | 71% | 69% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.40 | 0.06 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 1.00 | 0.36 |
| Finish rate | 50% | 28% |
| Streak | W1 | L3 |
| Days since last fight | 98 | 154 |
| Age | 30 | 38 |
| Height | — | 5'7" |
| Reach | — | 65" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.