CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Seokhyeon Ko vs Wellington Turman prediction
UFC Vegas 124 · Saturday, November 7, 2026. Our model gives Seokhyeon Ko a 77% chance to win.
Breakdown
Seokhyeon Ko and Wellington Turman meet at welterweight with very different profiles. Ko is the cleaner, more defensive striker: he lands about 3.1 significant strikes a minute and absorbs only 1.9, with 63% striking defence. Turman throws at a similar pace (3.2 landed) but takes 4.05 a minute and defends just 46%. Ko also looks to wrestle, attempting 2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes and holding 49% of control time, while Turman has been KO'd twice and submitted once. Turman has a slight edge in height and reach, but neither man finishes much in the UFC. Both made weight at 171 lbs, with no changes reported.
Our model likes Ko at 77%, driven by his gap in absorbed strikes (1.93 vs 4.05), his better striking defence, and his wrestling and control numbers. Turman is on a three-fight skid and returns after nearly three years away (1,071 days). The model includes that layoff, though it may underweight how much ring rust matters. The market is more confident in Ko at 84%, a gap of 7 points. Ko's sample is small at three UFC fights, so his numbers are blended toward league averages.
Key question: can Turman's size and 15-2 regional finishing background offset Ko's sharper defence and wrestling after such a long layoff?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Seokhyeon Ko by decision (43%).
KO / TKO25%
Ko 19%Turman 6%market 38%
Submission19%
Ko 14%Turman 5%market 16%
Decision56%
Ko 43%Turman 12%market 46%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years. Market numbers are sportsbooks' method-of-victory prices with the margin removed.
What the market says
| Ko | Turman | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 77% | 23% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (Pinnacle, no vig) | 84% | 16% |
| Kalshi$68k traded | 85% | 16% |
| Polymarket$19k traded | 85% | 16% |
Across 14 sportsbooks, Ko is priced between 81% and 84%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Ko1.19 (−526)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 1.14 at BetRivers. Typical price 1.14.
Turman6.20 (+520)at FanDuel · US →Typical price 5.95.
All 14 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Ko | Turman |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | UK/EU | 1.14 | 5.50 |
| BetRivers | US | 1.14 | 5.75 |
| Betfair Exchange | UK/EU | 1.19 | 6.00 |
| Betsson | EU | 1.12 | 5.90 |
| Coolbet | EU | 1.14 | 6.15 |
| DraftKings | US | 1.14 | 6.00 |
| FanDuel | US | 1.14 | 6.20 |
| NordicBet | EU | 1.14 | 6.00 |
| BetAnySports | — | 1.14 | 5.00 |
| BetOnline | — | 1.14 | 6.00 |
| BetUS | — | 1.14 | 5.75 |
| Bovada | — | 1.15 | 5.75 |
| Marathonbet | — | 1.12 | 5.75 |
| Pinnacle | — | 1.15 | 6.23 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Fight-week news
Both fighters weighed in at 171 lbs for their welterweight prelim at UFC Vegas 124, and no replacements, injuries or changes were reported.
Checked 2026-11-07 · mmasucka.com · sports.yahoo.com
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Seokhyeon Ko |  Wellington Turman | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | LWW | LLLWW |
| Record outside the UFC | — | 15-2, 11 finishes |
| UFC record | 2-1 | 3-6 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1526 | 1457 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.08 | 3.24 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 1.93 | 4.05 |
| Striking accuracy | 49% | 51% |
| Striking defence | 63% | 46% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 2.83 | 1.52 |
| Takedown defence | 59% | 50% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.38 | 0.74 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Finish rate | 10% | 14% |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Days since last fight | 112 | 1071 |
| Age | 33 | 30 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'0" |
| Reach | 71" | 72" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.