CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Jonny Parsons vs Jose Souza prediction
UFC Vegas 124 · Saturday, November 7, 2026. Our model gives Jonny Parsons a 55% chance to win.
Breakdown
Parsons brings pressure and power against a younger, much longer opponent. Both men have just one UFC fight, so their numbers are a small sample and sit close to league averages. Still, Parsons shows the sharper striking profile: 4.51 significant strikes landed per minute to Souza's 4.05, plus 1.35 knockdowns per 15 minutes against 0.12. Per reports, Parsons is a Muay Thai-based welterweight who stopped Danny Roberts in his debut. Souza, per reports, is 24, 6'3" and a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, with six knockout wins in his 9-1 record. Both made weight.
Our model leans Parsons at 55% mainly because of his striking edge, his better defence (63% to 56%) and his finishing record (50% to 17%). It knows about his 1,204 days away and his age of 35, but it may underweight how much three years out with injuries can erode a fighter. The market sees it very differently, making Souza 67%. The likely reasons are that layoff, the age gap and Souza's size, none of which the model can fully capture from one UFC fight each.
Key question: can Parsons's power land before the layoff and Souza's reach and youth take over?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Jonny Parsons by KO/TKO (30%).
KO / TKO47%
Parsons 30%Souza 17%market 51%
Submission10%
Parsons 5%Souza 5%market 12%
Decision43%
Parsons 20%Souza 23%market 36%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years. Market numbers are sportsbooks' method-of-victory prices with the margin removed.
What the market says
| Parsons | Souza | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 55% | 45% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (Pinnacle, no vig) | 33% | 67% |
| Kalshi$66k traded | 33% | 68% |
Across 9 sportsbooks, Parsons is priced between 32% and 35%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Parsons3.00 (+200)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 2.88 at FanDuel. Typical price 2.90.
Souza1.48 (−208)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 1.44 at FanDuel. Typical price 1.44.
All 9 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Parsons | Souza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | UK/EU | 3.00 | 1.48 |
| Betsson | EU | 2.90 | 1.40 |
| Coolbet | EU | 2.93 | 1.43 |
| FanDuel | US | 2.88 | 1.44 |
| NordicBet | EU | 2.95 | 1.41 |
| BetAnySports | — | 2.80 | 1.47 |
| BetOnline | — | 2.81 | 1.47 |
| BetUS | — | 2.78 | 1.47 |
| Pinnacle | — | 2.97 | 1.44 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Fight-week news
Parsons and Souza both made weight for their welterweight prelim at UFC Vegas 124, with Parsons coming back from a three-year injury layoff.
Checked 2026-11-07 · sports.yahoo.com · mymmanews.com
Before the UFC
Jonny Parsons · 8-3 before the UFC
6 KO/TKO · 0 submission wins
Jonny 'The Sluggernaut' Parsons is a 35-year-old Muay Thai-based welterweight who fights with pressure and has knockout power. He earned his UFC deal on Contender Series in 2021, then stopped Danny Roberts in his July 2023 UFC debut and has been out about 40 months with injuries.
Background: Muay Thai background
Fought in: Dana White's Contender Series
AI web research 2026-11-07 · medium confidence · fightingstats.com · espn.com · sports.yahoo.com
Jose Souza · 8-1 before the UFC
6 KO/TKO · 0 submission wins
José 'Canela' Souza is a 24-year-old, 6'3" welterweight from Manaus. He is 9-1 overall, with six knockout wins, and he beat Meng Ding by split decision in his UFC debut in Macau after a long wait caused by a suspension.
Background: Brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu · Black grade in muay thai · Serving a roughly two-year suspension (doping ban) delayed his UFC debut
Fought in: Brazilian regional circuit, Dana White's Contender Series
AI web research 2026-11-07 · medium confidence · fightingstats.com · fightomic.com · ufc.com
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Jonny Parsons | Jose Souza | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | W | W |
| UFC record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1529 | 1522 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 4.51 | 4.05 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Striking accuracy | 49% | 47% |
| Striking defence | 63% | 56% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| Takedown defence | 71% | 65% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 1.35 | 0.13 |
| Finish rate | 50% | 17% |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Days since last fight | 1204 | 161 |
| Age | 35 | — |
| Height | 5'9" | — |
| Reach | 69" | — |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.