CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Marcos Degli vs Mitch Raposo prediction
UFC Vegas 124 · Sunday, November 8, 2026. Our model gives Mitch Raposo a 61% chance to win.
Breakdown
Marcos Degli is a UFC debutant, so the model has no UFC data on him. Per reports, he is a 26-year-old Brazilian flyweight with an extensive Muay Thai background, a 15-3 pre-UFC record, a 13-fight winning streak and 14 finishes in 15 wins. Mitch Raposo has four UFC fights and is on a two-fight streak. He lands 2.11 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.97, so he is not a volume striker. His takedown defence is 69%, his finish rate is 8%, and he gives up a few inches of reach (64) and has little knockout power. Raposo's profile is that of a grinder, not a finisher.
Our model leans Raposo at 61%, but this is low confidence. The pick rests almost entirely on Raposo's UFC numbers: his 50% smoothed win rate, a 1509 Elo, and a strikes-absorbed rate that is a bit high but never ended in a stoppage loss. The model cannot see Degli's regional résumé, so it likely treats him as a generic newcomer. The market disagrees by 29 points, favouring Degli at 68%, most likely because it prices in his finishing record and Muay Thai pedigree. Raposo's 141-day layoff is in the model, though it may be underweighted.
Key question: can Raposo's durability and takedown defence blunt a debutant who has finished almost everyone he has faced?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Mitch Raposo by decision (32%).
KO / TKO23%
Degli 9%Raposo 15%market 33%
Submission20%
Degli 6%Raposo 14%market 21%
Decision57%
Degli 25%Raposo 32%market 46%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years. Market numbers are sportsbooks' method-of-victory prices with the margin removed.
What the market says
| Degli | Raposo | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 39% | 61% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (Pinnacle, no vig) | 67% | 33% |
| Kalshi$14k traded | 69% | 31% |
| Polymarket$15k traded | 69% | 31% |
Across 17 sportsbooks, Degli is priced between 65% and 68%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Degli1.46 (−217)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 1.44 at FanDuel. Typical price 1.42.
Raposo3.05 (+205)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 2.95 at DraftKings. Typical price 2.90.
All 17 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Degli | Raposo |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | UK/EU | 1.40 | 2.95 |
| BetRivers | US | 1.41 | 2.90 |
| Betclic | France | 1.37 | 2.85 |
| Betfair Exchange | UK/EU | 1.46 | 3.05 |
| Betsson | EU | 1.41 | 2.85 |
| Coolbet | EU | 1.45 | 2.85 |
| DraftKings | US | 1.42 | 2.95 |
| FanDuel | US | 1.44 | 2.88 |
| NordicBet | EU | 1.43 | 2.90 |
| PMU | France | 1.41 | 2.90 |
| Winamax | France | 1.37 | 2.60 |
| BetAnySports | — | 1.42 | 2.90 |
| BetOnline | — | 1.43 | 2.97 |
| BetUS | — | 1.43 | 2.94 |
| Bovada | — | 1.43 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | — | 1.39 | 2.76 |
| Pinnacle | — | 1.44 | 2.98 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Fight-week news
I found only a preview article, with no confirmed weigh-in results, replacements, injuries, camp changes or weight class changes, so nothing notable is verified.
Checked 2026-11-07 · clutchpoints.com
Before the UFC
Marcos Degli · 15-3 before the UFC
9 KO/TKO · 5 submission wins
26-year-old Brazilian flyweight nicknamed "Tailandês". He is a Muay Thai-based finisher who got his UFC deal via DWCS, and 14 of his 15 wins came by finish. The sources give the debut date as Nov. 7, not Nov. 8.
Background: Extensive Muay Thai background · 13-fight winning streak entering the UFC
AI web research 2026-11-07 · medium confidence · sports.yahoo.com · mmasucka.com
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Marcos Degli | Mitch Raposo | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | WWLL | |
| UFC record | — | 2-2 |
| Rating (Elo) | — | 1509 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | — | 2.11 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | — | 2.97 |
| Striking accuracy | — | 43% |
| Striking defence | — | 60% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | — | 1.66 |
| Takedown defence | — | 69% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | — | 0.10 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | — | 0.05 |
| Finish rate | — | 8% |
| Streak | — | W2 |
| Days since last fight | — | 141 |
| Age | 26 | 28 |
| Height | — | 5'5" |
| Reach | — | 64" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.