CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Austin Bashi vs Carlos Calderon prediction
UFC Vegas 124 · Saturday, November 7, 2026. Our model gives Austin Bashi a 68% chance to win.
Breakdown
Bashi brings a modest UFC profile into this one. He lands 2.19 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.64, so he is not winning the volume battle on average, and his 54% striking defence is unremarkable. He does push the wrestling, with 2.56 takedowns per 15 minutes, though he lands just 24% of them. He is shorter at 5'6" with a 70-inch reach, while Calderon is 5'11" with a 71-inch reach. Calderon, per reports, is a submission-heavy finisher who arrives as the Fury FC featherweight champion with an 11-4 (1 NC) record, and he took the fight on four days' notice for the injured Lucas Brennan. He made weight at 145.5 lb.
Our model leans Bashi at 68%, but with low confidence because it has no UFC data on Calderon. The lean rests on Bashi being five years younger (25.1 vs 30.7), coming off a normal 112-day layoff, and having a real UFC sample, even a small three-fight one that is heavily blended toward league averages. The market is at 84%, 16 points higher. It likely prices in Calderon's short-notice camp, which the model can't see.
Key question: can Calderon's submission game and size survive on four days' notice, or does Bashi's pressure and fresher preparation take over?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Austin Bashi by submission (27%).
KO / TKO22%
Bashi 14%Calderon 8%market 19%
Submission32%
Bashi 27%Calderon 5%market 51%
Decision46%
Bashi 27%Calderon 19%market 29%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years. Market numbers are sportsbooks' method-of-victory prices with the margin removed.
What the market says
| Bashi | Calderon | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 68% | 32% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (Pinnacle, no vig) | 84% | 16% |
| Kalshi$20k traded | 85% | 16% |
| Polymarket$6k traded | 85% | 16% |
Across 12 sportsbooks, Bashi is priced between 81% and 85%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Bashi1.19 (−526)at Coolbet · EU →Best in the US: 1.17 at FanDuel. Typical price 1.16.
Calderon6.40 (+540)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 5.70 at DraftKings. Typical price 5.65.
All 12 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Bashi | Calderon |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | US | 1.14 | 5.60 |
| Betfair Exchange | UK/EU | 1.17 | 6.40 |
| Betsson | EU | 1.13 | 5.75 |
| Coolbet | EU | 1.19 | 5.00 |
| DraftKings | US | 1.15 | 5.70 |
| FanDuel | US | 1.17 | 5.40 |
| NordicBet | EU | 1.12 | 5.75 |
| BetOnline | — | 1.16 | 5.50 |
| BetUS | — | 1.16 | 5.40 |
| Bovada | — | 1.15 | 5.75 |
| Marathonbet | — | 1.13 | 5.10 |
| Pinnacle | — | 1.16 | 5.95 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Fight-week news
Calderon stepped in on 4 days' notice for the injured Lucas Brennan (torn ACL), made weight at 145.5 lb, and the featherweight prelim is on for UFC Vegas 124.
Checked 2026-11-07 · mmamania.com · si.com
Before the UFC
Carlos Calderon · 11-4 before the UFC
2 KO/TKO · 6 submission wins
Colorado featherweight Carlos Calderon is a submission-heavy finisher. He came into the UFC as the Fury FC champion with an 11-4 (1 NC) record, and he took the Austin Bashi fight on about four days' notice, replacing Lucas Brennan. The record includes one no contest, and I only have secondary sources for it.
Background: Fury FC featherweight champion
Fought in: Fury FC, Combate Global, Colorado Combat Club, Dana White's Contender Series
AI web research 2026-11-07 · medium confidence · fightomic.com · middleeasy.com · fightomic.com
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Austin Bashi | Carlos Calderon | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | LWL | |
| UFC record | 1-2 | — |
| Rating (Elo) | 1492 | — |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 2.19 | — |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.64 | — |
| Striking accuracy | 41% | — |
| Striking defence | 54% | — |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 2.56 | — |
| Takedown defence | 62% | — |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.77 | — |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.08 | — |
| Finish rate | 30% | — |
| Streak | L1 | — |
| Days since last fight | 112 | — |
| Age | 25 | 31 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'11" |
| Reach | 70" | 71" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.