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Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid prediction

UFC Vegas 124 · Saturday, November 7, 2026. Our model gives Keiichiro Nakamura a 54% chance to win.

Breakdown

Both men arrive with a single UFC fight, so every rate here is heavily blended toward league averages and shouldn't be read as a real profile. On the numbers we have, the striking is nearly identical: Nakamura lands 3.28 significant strikes a minute to Schmid's 3.29, both at 40% accuracy. Nakamura has the better defence (60% to 51%) and the more dangerous hands, with 0.65 knockdowns per 15 minutes against 0.21. Schmid is the more active grappler, at 1.10 takedowns per 15 minutes and 16% control time. Per reports, he is a taekwondo black belt who went 4-2 as a pro, with three wins by KO or TKO, and he lost his short-notice UFC debut by first-round TKO.

Our model leans Nakamura at 54%, driven by his higher Elo (1528 to 1475), his better striking defence and his knockdown rate. Schmid's one recorded knockout loss also counts against him. The market is far more confident, at 76% for Nakamura, a gap of 22 points. The model only knows UFC fights, and with one bout each it has little to go on, so the market may be pricing in regional records or Nakamura's background that we can't see. Nakamura's 280-day layoff and Schmid's quick turnaround may also be underweighted.

Key question: can Schmid's grappling and activity blunt Nakamura's power, or does Nakamura's sharper defence and knockdown threat take over?

Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.

Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)

Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.