CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Andre Petroski vs Mantas Kondratavicius prediction
UFC Vegas 124 · Saturday, November 7, 2026. Our model gives Mantas Kondratavicius a 70% chance to win.
Breakdown
Petroski is a durable veteran who fights at a modest pace, landing 2.81 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 3.02. He has been knocked out four times and is on a three-fight skid. His takedown defence is strong at 80%, and he attempts a fair number of takedowns himself. Kondratavicius is the busier, sharper striker at 4.15 landed a minute on 61% accuracy, with more knockdown power. He is also three inches taller and two inches longer in reach. Per reports, he is a Lithuanian grappling and combat sambo champion who went 8-1 before the UFC. Keep in mind his UFC numbers come from a single fight, so that sample is small and heavily blended toward league averages.
Our model likes Kondratavicius at 70%, driven by his striking output and accuracy edge, Petroski's four knockout losses and current losing streak, and an age gap of about eight years (35 versus 27). The market is close at 74%, so there is no real disagreement. The model may underweight how much Petroski's age and recent form matter, and it only has one UFC fight to judge Kondratavicius by.
Key question: can Petroski's experience and takedown defence keep this a grind, or does Kondratavicius's volume and length wear him down?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Mantas Kondratavicius by KO/TKO (39%).
KO / TKO47%
Petroski 8%Kondratavicius 39%market 61%
Submission14%
Petroski 8%Kondratavicius 6%market 16%
Decision39%
Petroski 14%Kondratavicius 25%market 22%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years. Market numbers are sportsbooks' method-of-victory prices with the margin removed.
What the market says
| Petroski | Kondratavicius | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 30% | 70% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (Pinnacle, no vig) | 27% | 73% |
| Kalshi$28k traded | 27% | 74% |
| Polymarket$19k traded | 26% | 75% |
Across 14 sportsbooks, Petroski is priced between 27% and 29%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Petroski3.70 (+270)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 3.50 at DraftKings. Typical price 3.46.
Kondratavicius1.36 (−278)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 1.34 at FanDuel. Typical price 1.33.
All 14 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Petroski | Kondratavicius |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | UK/EU | 3.40 | 1.30 |
| BetRivers | US | 3.40 | 1.32 |
| Betfair Exchange | UK/EU | 3.70 | 1.36 |
| Betsson | EU | 3.45 | 1.30 |
| Coolbet | EU | 3.35 | 1.35 |
| DraftKings | US | 3.50 | 1.32 |
| FanDuel | US | 3.40 | 1.34 |
| NordicBet | EU | 3.50 | 1.32 |
| BetAnySports | — | 3.35 | 1.33 |
| BetOnline | — | 3.47 | 1.33 |
| BetUS | — | 3.46 | 1.33 |
| Bovada | — | 3.50 | 1.33 |
| Marathonbet | — | 3.40 | 1.30 |
| Pinnacle | — | 3.61 | 1.33 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Fight-week news
No news from the past 10 days about a 2026-11-07 Petroski vs Kondratavicius fight was found, and the only matching preview appears to be for the 2025 card.
Checked 2026-11-07 · sports.yahoo.com
Before the UFC
Mantas Kondratavicius · 8-1 before the UFC
6 KO/TKO · 2 submission wins
Lithuanian middleweight from Kaunas who went 8-1 before the UFC. His only loss was a 2023 rear-naked choke submission to V. Augen at Ares FC 16, and he then won four straight, finishing his last three. He earned his contract with a 66-second TKO on DWCS, then won his UFC debut by decision over Antonio Trocoli in March 2026.
Background: Lithuanian grappling champion · 3x Lithuanian combat sambo champion · Baltic and Lithuanian amateur MMA titles
Fought in: Ares FC, CAGE MMA Finland, Cage Warriors, Dana White's Contender Series
AI web research 2026-11-07 · high confidence · pl.wikipedia.org · espn.com · fightomic.com
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Andre Petroski | Mantas Kondratavicius | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | LLLWW | W |
| Record outside the UFC | 5-1, 5 finishes | — |
| UFC record | 8-5 | 1-0 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1544 | 1518 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 2.81 | 4.15 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.02 | 2.22 |
| Striking accuracy | 49% | 61% |
| Striking defence | 52% | 56% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 2.94 | 1.65 |
| Takedown defence | 80% | 80% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 1.16 | 0.75 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.13 | 0.63 |
| Finish rate | 23% | 17% |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Days since last fight | 175 | 231 |
| Age | 35 | 27 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 73" | 75" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.