CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando prediction
UFC Vegas 124 · Sunday, November 8, 2026. Our model gives Lucas Fernando a 62% chance to win.
Breakdown
Elekana and Fernando are the same height at 6'3", but they fight differently. Fernando is the volume striker with the better defence: he lands 4.53 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.39, while Elekana lands 2.89 and absorbs 3.50. Fernando also carries more knockdown power at 1.29 per 15 minutes, against 0.37 for Elekana, and he has three more inches of reach. Elekana's best routes are on the mat. He attempts more submissions and holds more control time, though his 0.98 takedowns per 15 minutes and 29% accuracy are modest. Fernando's takedown defence of 59% is not airtight. Both made weight, and the bout is official.
Our model gives Fernando 62%, driven by his striking differential, his defence (66% to 48%) and his knockdown rate. Elekana's 281 days off and age of 31 slightly weigh on him, though the model may underweight them. Fernando has only one UFC fight, so his numbers are a small sample. Per reports, he is a former LFA champion on a five-fight win streak who knocked out Rafael Tobias in his debut, which the model cannot see. That likely explains why the market is higher on Fernando, at 74%.
Key question: can Elekana drag Fernando into grappling exchanges, or does Fernando's volume and power take over on the feet?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Lucas Fernando by KO/TKO (40%).
KO / TKO54%
Elekana 15%Fernando 40%market 41%
Submission15%
Elekana 9%Fernando 5%market 20%
Decision31%
Elekana 14%Fernando 17%market 39%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years. Market numbers are sportsbooks' method-of-victory prices with the margin removed.
What the market says
| Elekana | Fernando | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 38% | 62% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (Pinnacle, no vig) | 26% | 74% |
| Kalshi$34k traded | 25% | 76% |
| Polymarket$9k traded | 26% | 75% |
Across 16 sportsbooks, Elekana is priced between 25% and 28%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Elekana3.85 (+285)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 3.75 at FanDuel. Typical price 3.67.
Fernando1.33 (−303)at Coolbet · EU →Best in the US: 1.30 at BetRivers. Typical price 1.29.
All 16 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Elekana | Fernando |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | US | 3.55 | 1.30 |
| Betclic | France | 3.75 | 1.23 |
| Betfair Exchange | UK/EU | 3.85 | 1.32 |
| Betsson | EU | 3.55 | 1.28 |
| Coolbet | EU | 3.47 | 1.33 |
| DraftKings | US | 3.70 | 1.29 |
| FanDuel | US | 3.75 | 1.29 |
| NordicBet | EU | 3.65 | 1.30 |
| PMU | France | 3.55 | 1.30 |
| Winamax | France | 3.50 | 1.25 |
| BetAnySports | — | 3.60 | 1.29 |
| BetOnline | — | 3.87 | 1.28 |
| BetUS | — | 3.73 | 1.29 |
| Bovada | — | 3.70 | 1.30 |
| Marathonbet | — | 3.46 | 1.29 |
| Pinnacle | — | 3.73 | 1.31 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Fight-week news
Both fighters made weight for their light heavyweight bout, and the fight is official for UFC Vegas 124.
Checked 2026-11-07 · bjpenn.com · mmasucka.com
Before the UFC
Lucas Fernando · 13-3 before the UFC
Brazilian light heavyweight and former LFA champion who made his UFC debut in August 2026 with a third-round KO of Rafael Tobias. He is on a five-fight win streak, three of those wins by finish. The pre-UFC record of 13-3 is inferred from the reported 14-3 after the debut win.
Background: Former LFA champion
Fought in: LFA
AI web research 2026-11-07 · low confidence · boxingnews.com · mmasucka.com · en.wikipedia.org
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Billy Elekana | Lucas Fernando | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | WWWL | W |
| Record outside the UFC | 7-1, 4 finishes | — |
| UFC record | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1550 | 1525 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 2.89 | 4.53 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.50 | 2.39 |
| Striking accuracy | 54% | 55% |
| Striking defence | 48% | 66% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 0.98 | 0.74 |
| Takedown defence | 65% | 59% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.74 | 0.29 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.37 | 1.29 |
| Finish rate | 42% | 50% |
| Streak | W3 | W1 |
| Days since last fight | 281 | 85 |
| Age | 31 | 30 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'3" |
| Reach | 77" | 80" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.