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Gabriella Fernandes vs Karine Silva prediction

UFC Vegas 124 · Saturday, November 7, 2026. Our model gives Karine Silva a 69% chance to win.

Breakdown

Gabriella Fernandes and Karine Silva set up as a classic striker-versus-grappler contrast. Fernandes lands more on the feet (3.48 significant strikes a minute to Silva's 2.42) but also absorbs a lot (4.96 a minute), and she has been knocked out once. Silva is the more dangerous finisher, with 1.25 submission attempts per 15 minutes and a 35% finish rate. Her takedown game (1.96 per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy) meets a defence that is only 43% for her, though Fernandes stops 68% of attempts. Reach and height are nearly even. Per reports, both made weight at 125 pounds.

Our model likes Silva at 69%, and the market is close at 67%, so there is no real disagreement. Three numbers drive it: Silva's better Elo (1558 to 1513), her much higher grappling output and control time (23% versus 7%), and the gap in strikes absorbed per minute (2.74 versus 4.96). Silva's 14-4 record outside the UFC also fits her finishing profile. Fernandes' main route is keeping the fight standing, where her volume leads. Both are coming off layoffs of about seven months, so that is a wash.

Key question: can Fernandes keep this on the feet and out-volume Silva, or does Silva get it to the mat and find a submission?

Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.

Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)

Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.