CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Bo Nickal vs Joe Pyfer prediction
UFC 335 · Sunday, December 13, 2026. Our model gives Joe Pyfer a 58% chance to win.
Breakdown
Nickal and Pyfer both come in with real finishing threat, but they get there differently. Nickal is the more efficient striker, landing 59% of his significant strikes, absorbing just 2.29 a minute, and defending at 59%. He also brings the better wrestling: 2.11 takedowns per 15 minutes, 82% takedown defence and 31% control time. Pyfer lands slightly more volume (3.49 a minute) and carries more knockdown power at 0.91 per 15 minutes, but he is hittable, absorbing 3.33 a minute, and his takedown defence is 66%. The two are close in size, with Pyfer an inch taller and Nickal owning a one-inch reach edge.
Our model leans Pyfer at 58%, mainly because of his higher Elo (1631 to 1594), his four-fight win streak, and his knockdown rate. Nickal's cleaner striking and grappling numbers keep this close, and the one time he was KO'd is a flag against a power puncher. Pyfer's 260-day layoff and Nickal's 182 are factored in, though the model may underweight them. No market line is available for comparison.
Key question: can Nickal get Pyfer to the mat early enough to avoid his power, or does Pyfer's punching find him first?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Joe Pyfer by KO/TKO (28%).
KO / TKO45%
Nickal 17%Pyfer 28%
Submission15%
Nickal 8%Pyfer 7%
Decision39%
Nickal 17%Pyfer 22%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years.
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
 Bo Nickal |  Joe Pyfer | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | WWLWW | WWWWL |
| Record outside the UFC | 1-0, 1 finish | 9-2, 8 finishes |
| UFC record | 6-1 | 7-1 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1594 | 1631 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.34 | 3.49 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.29 | 3.33 |
| Striking accuracy | 59% | 43% |
| Striking defence | 59% | 53% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 2.11 | 1.26 |
| Takedown defence | 82% | 66% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 1.25 | 0.78 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.74 | 0.91 |
| Finish rate | 61% | 65% |
| Streak | W2 | W4 |
| Days since last fight | 182 | 260 |
| Age | 31 | 30 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 76" | 75" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.