CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule prediction
UFC 334 · Sunday, November 15, 2026. Our model gives Bilal Hasan a 77% chance to win.
Breakdown
Bilal Hasan brings a finisher's profile into this one, though it rests on a single UFC fight, so his numbers are a small sample and heavily blended toward league averages. He lands 4.56 significant strikes a minute, absorbs 3.67 and throws knockdowns at a notable 0.83 per 15 minutes. Luis Gurule is the busier, more hittable fighter: 5.58 landed but 6.36 absorbed per minute, with almost no knockdown power and a 7% finish rate. Gurule is also shorter at 65 inches with a 64-inch reach, has been stopped once and submitted once, and offers little on the mat (20% takedown accuracy).
Our model leans Hasan at 77%, mainly because of the gap in strike differential (Hasan is slightly positive, Gurule is well in the red), Hasan's higher Elo (1528 vs 1434) and an eight-year age edge (25 vs 33). Gurule's 169-day layoff and recent losing streak don't help him. The market is higher on Hasan at 86%. A likely reason is that per reports he is 9-0 with eight finishes and a three-time CFFC champion, which the model can't see because it only knows UFC fights.
Key question: can Gurule's volume survive Hasan's power long enough to turn this into a grind, or does Hasan find an early finish?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Bilal Hasan by decision (41%).
KO / TKO33%
Hasan 27%Gurule 6%
Submission12%
Hasan 9%Gurule 3%
Decision55%
Hasan 41%Gurule 14%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years.
What the market says
| Hasan | Gurule | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 77% | 23% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (median, no vig) | 86% | 14% |
| Kalshi$8k traded | 85% | 15% |
| Polymarket$28 traded | 85% | 15% |
Across 8 sportsbooks, Hasan is priced between 83% and 86%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Hasan1.11 (−909)at BetRivers · US →Typical price 1.11.
Gurule7.00 (+600)at DraftKings · US →Typical price 6.65.
All 8 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Hasan | Gurule |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | US | 1.11 | 6.75 |
| Betclic | France | 1.07 | 6.75 |
| DraftKings | US | 1.11 | 7.00 |
| FanDuel | US | 1.11 | 6.20 |
| Winamax | France | 1.08 | 5.30 |
| BetAnySports | — | 1.11 | 5.85 |
| BetOnline | — | 1.12 | 6.96 |
| Marathonbet | — | 1.08 | 6.55 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Before the UFC
Bilal Hasan · 9-0 before the UFC
7 KO/TKO · 1 submission wins
Bilal Hasan, 'The IndoNinja', is an Indonesian flyweight who won and defended the CFFC title three times before a 45-second knockout on Contender Series earned him a UFC deal. He then won his UFC debut by TKO over N. Rojas and now faces Luis Gurule at UFC 334.
Background: CFFC flyweight champion with 3 title defenses · Nickname: The IndoNinja
Fought in: CFFC (Cage Fury Fighting Championships), Dana White's Contender Series (Season 10, Week 1)
AI web research 2026-11-07 · low confidence · espn.com · fightomic.com · agentmma.com
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Bilal Hasan | Luis Gurule | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | W | LWLLL |
| Record outside the UFC | 9-0, 8 finishes | — |
| UFC record | 1-0 | 1-4 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1528 | 1434 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 4.56 | 5.58 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.67 | 6.36 |
| Striking accuracy | 42% | 40% |
| Striking defence | 52% | 59% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 1.54 | 0.92 |
| Takedown defence | 65% | 72% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.83 | 0.05 |
| Finish rate | 50% | 7% |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Days since last fight | 78 | 169 |
| Age | 25 | 33 |
| Height | — | 5'5" |
| Reach | — | 64" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.