CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Chris Duncan vs Drew Dober prediction
UFC 334 · Saturday, November 14, 2026. Our model gives Chris Duncan a 72% chance to win.
Breakdown
Chris Duncan and Drew Dober throw at nearly the same pace, about 4.4 significant strikes a minute each, and both absorb a little over 4 and defend about 53%. The gap is in how they get there. Duncan lands 46% of his strikes to Dober's 41%, and he is the far more active wrestler, attempting 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes against Dober's 0.65. Dober carries the bigger knockdown rate (0.65 vs 0.40) and a 45% finish rate, but he has been knocked out 3 times and submitted 4 in 26 UFC fights. Duncan has the size edge, with 2 inches of height and 1 inch of reach.
Our model gives Duncan 72%, and the market has him at 56%. That 16-point gap is large. The model leans on Duncan's better striking accuracy, his wrestling and control edge, and Dober's age of 38 plus his history of getting finished. The market may be giving more credit to Dober's 26-fight experience, his current two-fight win streak and his power, and the model may be underweighting his age and layoff, which are about 252 days for him and 224 for Duncan. Duncan is also coming off a loss.
Key question: can Duncan turn this into a grappling fight, or does Dober land his power first?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Chris Duncan by KO/TKO (27%).
KO / TKO37%
Duncan 27%Dober 10%
Submission30%
Duncan 25%Dober 5%
Decision34%
Duncan 20%Dober 14%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years.
What the market says
| Duncan | Dober | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 72% | 28% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (median, no vig) | 57% | 43% |
| Kalshi$3k traded | 60% | 41% |
| Polymarket$103 traded | 60% | 41% |
Across 4 sportsbooks, Duncan is priced between 56% and 60%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Duncan1.68 (−147)at Betsson · EU →Typical price 1.64.
Dober2.16 (+116)at Betsson · EU →Typical price 2.19.
All 4 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Duncan | Dober |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | EU | 1.68 | 2.16 |
| NordicBet | EU | 1.67 | 2.15 |
| BetOnline | — | 1.61 | 2.40 |
| Marathonbet | — | 1.59 | 2.21 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Chris Duncan | Drew Dober | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | LWWWW | WWLLL |
| Record outside the UFC | 9-1, 8 finishes | 14-4, 10 finishes |
| UFC record | 6-2 | 15-11 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1580 | 1567 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 4.37 | 4.41 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 4.06 | 4.26 |
| Striking accuracy | 46% | 41% |
| Striking defence | 53% | 53% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 2.53 | 0.65 |
| Takedown defence | 59% | 59% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.62 | 0.10 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.40 | 0.65 |
| Finish rate | 35% | 45% |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Days since last fight | 224 | 252 |
| Age | 34 | 38 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'8" |
| Reach | 71" | 70" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.