CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Bia Mesquita vs Macy Chiasson prediction
UFC 334 · Saturday, November 14, 2026. Our model gives Bia Mesquita a 63% chance to win.
Breakdown
Mesquita brings the sharper, more complete profile on paper. She lands about 3.9 significant strikes a minute and absorbs only 2.4, with 63% striking defence, while Chiasson lands 3.2, absorbs 2.8 and defends just 46%. Mesquita is also the more active grappler, with 2.3 takedowns and 1.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes, though Chiasson's 63% takedown defence is a bit better than hers. Chiasson owns the visible size edge, at 71 inches tall with a 72-inch reach, and has far more UFC experience with 14 fights. Mesquita's sample is only 3 fights, so her numbers are heavily blended toward league averages and shouldn't be read as a settled profile.
Our model likes Mesquita at 62% mainly because of the gap in striking defence, her better absorbed-to-landed ratio, and her finishing record (70% finish rate, never KO'd or submitted) against Chiasson's 34% and a current three-fight skid. The market is close at 66%, so there's no real disagreement. Chiasson's 259 days off and Mesquita's 147 are both in the model, though it may underweight them.
Key question: can Mesquita's volume and submission threat hold up against Chiasson's size, or does the reach edge make it a longer night than the numbers suggest?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Bia Mesquita by submission (29%).
KO / TKO19%
Mesquita 11%Chiasson 7%
Submission36%
Mesquita 29%Chiasson 7%
Decision46%
Mesquita 22%Chiasson 23%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years.
What the market says
| Mesquita | Chiasson | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 63% | 37% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (median, no vig) | 66% | 34% |
| Kalshi$455 traded | 68% | 32% |
| Polymarket$0 traded | 66% | 35% |
Across 4 sportsbooks, Mesquita is priced between 65% and 66%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Mesquita1.43 (−233)at Betsson · EU →Typical price 1.43.
Chiasson2.75 (+175)at Betsson · EU →Typical price 2.75.
All 4 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Mesquita | Chiasson |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | EU | 1.43 | 2.75 |
| NordicBet | EU | 1.42 | 2.75 |
| BetOnline | — | 1.48 | 2.77 |
| Marathonbet | — | 1.41 | 2.69 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Bia Mesquita | Macy Chiasson | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | WWW | LLLWW |
| Record outside the UFC | 5-0, 4 finishes | 2-0, 1 finish |
| UFC record | 3-0 | 8-6 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1577 | 1542 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.86 | 3.22 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.37 | 2.81 |
| Striking accuracy | 53% | 46% |
| Striking defence | 63% | 46% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 2.34 | 1.82 |
| Takedown defence | 59% | 63% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 1.90 | 0.40 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| Finish rate | 70% | 34% |
| Streak | W3 | L3 |
| Days since last fight | 147 | 259 |
| Age | 36 | 35 |
| Height | — | 5'11" |
| Reach | — | 72" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.