CageIQ 
Breakdown
This one pits Saint Denis's pressure and volume against Salkilld's cleaner defence and size. Saint Denis lands more per minute (5.24 to 4.01) but absorbs far more (3.97 to 2.46) and has only 43% striking defence against Salkilld's 51%. Both men chase takedowns at a high rate, about 3.7 per 15 minutes for Saint Denis and 4.2 for Salkilld, and both defend them at around 70%, so wrestling may cancel out. Saint Denis has been knocked out twice and submitted once, while Salkilld has never been finished in the UFC. Salkilld is also taller, with two more inches of reach, and four years younger.
Our model gives Salkilld 68%, and the betting market matches it exactly. The biggest drivers are his better damage ratio (landing far more than he absorbs), his unbeaten six-fight streak against Saint Denis's most recent loss, and his slightly higher Elo (1649 to 1623). Salkilld has only six UFC fights, so his numbers carry a bit more uncertainty than Saint Denis's 13-fight profile. Saint Denis's finishing record (63%) and knockdown power keep him live, but the model sees the defensive gap as the larger factor.
Key question: can Saint Denis land his power and pressure early before Salkilld's sharper defence and reach take over?