CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Benoit Saint Denis vs Quillan Salkilld prediction
UFC Sydney · Saturday, February 6, 2027. Our model gives Quillan Salkilld a 71% chance to win.
Breakdown
This one pits Saint Denis's pressure and volume against Salkilld's cleaner defence and size. Saint Denis lands more per minute (5.24 to 4.01) but absorbs far more (3.97 to 2.46) and has only 43% striking defence against Salkilld's 51%. Both men chase takedowns at a high rate, about 3.7 per 15 minutes for Saint Denis and 4.2 for Salkilld, and both defend them at around 70%, so wrestling may cancel out. Saint Denis has been knocked out twice and submitted once, while Salkilld has never been finished in the UFC. Salkilld is also taller, with two more inches of reach, and four years younger.
Our model gives Salkilld 68%, and the betting market matches it exactly. The biggest drivers are his better damage ratio (landing far more than he absorbs), his unbeaten six-fight streak against Saint Denis's most recent loss, and his slightly higher Elo (1649 to 1623). Salkilld has only six UFC fights, so his numbers carry a bit more uncertainty than Saint Denis's 13-fight profile. Saint Denis's finishing record (63%) and knockdown power keep him live, but the model sees the defensive gap as the larger factor.
Key question: can Saint Denis land his power and pressure early before Salkilld's sharper defence and reach take over?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Quillan Salkilld by KO/TKO (31%).
KO / TKO39%
Denis 8%Salkilld 31%
Submission23%
Denis 7%Salkilld 16%
Decision38%
Denis 14%Salkilld 24%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years.
What the market says
| Denis | Salkilld | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 29% | 71% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (median, no vig) | 32% | 68% |
Across 3 sportsbooks, Denis is priced between 30% and 40%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Denis2.90 (+190)at Betclic · France →Typical price 2.90.
Salkilld1.55 (−182)at Winamax · France →Typical price 1.38.
All 3 sportsbooks
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
 Benoit Saint Denis | Quillan Salkilld | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | LWWWW | WWWWW |
| Record outside the UFC | — | 7-1, 5 finishes |
| UFC record | 9-4 | 6-0 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1623 | 1649 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 5.24 | 4.01 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.97 | 2.46 |
| Striking accuracy | 57% | 55% |
| Striking defence | 43% | 51% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 3.73 | 4.22 |
| Takedown defence | 70% | 72% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 1.55 | 0.86 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.77 | 1.11 |
| Finish rate | 63% | 69% |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Days since last fight | 210 | 182 |
| Age | 31 | 27 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'0" |
| Reach | 73" | 75" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.