CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit prediction
UFC 334 · Sunday, November 15, 2026. Our model gives Ciryl Gane a 61% chance to win.
Breakdown
Gane is the longer, cleaner striker here. He lands 5.24 significant strikes a minute and absorbs just 2.38, with 61% defence, and he has 3 inches of height and 8 inches of reach on Hokit. Hokit is the volume brawler: 7.95 landed a minute, but he absorbs 5.18 and defends only 49%. He also brings real power (1.08 knockdowns per 15 minutes) and a bigger wrestling game, with 1.43 takedowns per 15 and 26% control time against Gane's 10%. Hokit has only 4 UFC fights, so his rates are a small sample and partly blended toward league averages.
Our model leans Gane at 60% because of the gap in Elo (1696 to 1613), the large difference in strikes absorbed, and Gane's reach edge over 13 UFC fights. Hokit's youth (29 against 36.6) and his wrestling keep it from being more lopsided. The market is more confident at 67%, a 7-point gap that is under our threshold for calling a disagreement, so the two views are broadly aligned. Both fighters are coming off the same 154-day layoff, so that doesn't separate them.
Key question: can Gane keep Hokit at range and out of the clinch, or does Hokit close the distance and wrestle his way into a fight on his terms?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Ciryl Gane by KO/TKO (28%).
KO / TKO53%
Gane 28%Hokit 25%market 49%
Submission9%
Gane 7%Hokit 2%market 18%
Decision38%
Gane 26%Hokit 12%market 33%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years. Market numbers are sportsbooks' method-of-victory prices with the margin removed.
What the market says
| Gane | Hokit | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 61% | 39% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (Pinnacle, no vig) | 67% | 33% |
| Kalshi$409k traded | 66% | 35% |
| Polymarket$62k traded | 68% | 32% |
Across 13 sportsbooks, Gane is priced between 65% and 68%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Gane1.48 (−208)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 1.41 at DraftKings. Typical price 1.40.
Hokit3.00 (+200)at Betfair Exchange · UK/EU →Best in the US: 3.00 at DraftKings. Typical price 2.95.
All 13 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Gane | Hokit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | UK/EU | 1.40 | 2.95 |
| BetRivers | US | 1.40 | 2.95 |
| Betclic | France | 1.39 | 2.75 |
| Betfair Exchange | UK/EU | 1.48 | 3.00 |
| Coolbet | EU | 1.42 | 2.95 |
| DraftKings | US | 1.41 | 3.00 |
| FanDuel | US | 1.38 | 2.96 |
| PMU | France | 1.40 | 2.95 |
| Unibet | France | 1.39 | 2.70 |
| Winamax | France | 1.39 | 2.75 |
| BetAnySports | — | 1.48 | 2.75 |
| BetOnline | — | 1.47 | 2.81 |
| Pinnacle | — | 1.43 | 2.93 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
 Ciryl Gane |  Josh Hokit | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | W–WWL | WWWW |
| Record outside the UFC | 3-0, 3 finishes | 6-0, 6 finishes |
| UFC record | 11-2 | 4-0 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1696 | 1613 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 5.24 | 7.96 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.38 | 5.18 |
| Striking accuracy | 61% | 62% |
| Striking defence | 61% | 49% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 0.71 | 1.43 |
| Takedown defence | 54% | 71% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.32 | 1.08 |
| Finish rate | 50% | 58% |
| Streak | W3 | W4 |
| Days since last fight | 154 | 154 |
| Age | 37 | 29 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'1" |
| Reach | 81" | 73" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.