CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney prediction
UFC 334 · Saturday, November 14, 2026. Our model gives Terrance McKinney a 60% chance to win.
Breakdown
Jim Miller and Terrance McKinney are close to opposites in pace. McKinney throws at more than double Miller's rate, landing 6.54 significant strikes a minute to Miller's 2.93, with 55% accuracy and 0.99 knockdowns per 15 minutes. He also absorbs a lot (4.32 a minute, only 44% defence) and has been knocked out four times. Miller is the patient veteran with 46 UFC fights, a 43% finish rate and 1.68 submission attempts per 15 minutes, though he has been submitted three times. McKinney also wrestles more, with 2.52 takedowns per 15 minutes and 69% takedown defence against Miller's 49%. McKinney has the 2-inch height and reach edge.
Our model favours McKinney at 60%, mainly because of his output gap, his better takedown defence and the age difference of 43.2 versus 32.2. Miller's Elo of 1616 is higher than McKinney's 1532, which is why this is not more lopsided. The market is at 70%, 10 points more confident than we are. The model may underweight how age and Miller's 189-day layoff affect a 43-year-old, and it can't see camp or recent news.
Key question: Can Miller survive McKinney's early pressure long enough to drag him into a grappling fight?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Terrance McKinney by KO/TKO (23%).
KO / TKO35%
Miller 11%McKinney 23%
Submission29%
Miller 15%McKinney 14%
Decision36%
Miller 14%McKinney 22%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years.
What the market says
| Miller | McKinney | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 40% | 60% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (median, no vig)opened 30% on Nov 7 | 32% | 68% |
| Kalshi$5k traded | 34% | 66% |
| Polymarket$1k traded | 33% | 67% |
Across 4 sportsbooks, Miller is priced between 30% and 34%.
Line moved 2 pts toward Miller
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Miller3.15 (+215)at Betsson · EU →Typical price 2.96.
McKinney1.34 (−294)at Betsson · EU →Typical price 1.38.
All 4 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Miller | McKinney |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | EU | 3.15 | 1.34 |
| NordicBet | EU | 3.10 | 1.31 |
| BetOnline | — | 2.81 | 1.47 |
| Marathonbet | — | 2.69 | 1.41 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
 Jim Miller | Terrance McKinney | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | WLWLW | LWLWW |
| Record outside the UFC | 11-1, 9 finishes | 10-3, 10 finishes |
| UFC record | 28-18 | 8-6 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1616 | 1532 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 2.93 | 6.54 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.43 | 4.32 |
| Striking accuracy | 42% | 55% |
| Striking defence | 57% | 44% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 1.48 | 2.52 |
| Takedown defence | 49% | 69% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 1.68 | 1.67 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.20 | 0.99 |
| Finish rate | 43% | 53% |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Days since last fight | 189 | 126 |
| Age | 43 | 32 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'10" |
| Reach | 71" | 73" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.