CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Kevin Holland vs Uros Medic prediction
UFC 334 · Sunday, November 15, 2026. Our model gives Uros Medic a 57% chance to win.
Breakdown
Kevin Holland brings a lanky frame to this one: he stands 75 inches with an 81-inch reach, a full 10 inches of reach over Uros Medic. Both men land at a similar clip, about 4.5 to 4.8 significant strikes a minute, and neither wrestles much. Holland's takedown and control numbers are modest, and Medic's are lower still. The difference is power. Medic scores 2.43 knockdowns per 15 minutes against Holland's 0.34, and he finishes 65% of his fights to Holland's 38%. Holland has been submitted three times and knocked out twice, so he does give chances away.
Our model leans Medic at 57%, driven by three numbers: his sharper striking accuracy (56% to 48%), his knockdown rate, and his four-fight win streak. He is also fresher, with 106 days since his last fight against Holland's 218. Holland's 28 UFC fights give his profile a solid sample, while Medic's 11 are a smaller one. The betting market is close at 61% for Medic, so there is no big disagreement. Holland's age of 34 and longer layoff are in the model, though it may underweight them.
Key question: can Holland use his reach to keep Medic at range, or will Medic's power close the distance?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Uros Medic by KO/TKO (44%).
KO / TKO61%
Holland 17%Medic 44%
Submission12%
Holland 9%Medic 3%
Decision27%
Holland 17%Medic 10%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years.
What the market says
| Holland | Medic | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 43% | 57% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (median, no vig) | 39% | 61% |
| Kalshi$29k traded | 36% | 64% |
| Polymarket$897 traded | 38% | 63% |
Across 7 sportsbooks, Holland is priced between 38% and 40%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Holland2.45 (+145)at DraftKings · US →Typical price 2.41.
Medic1.57 (−175)at DraftKings · US →Typical price 1.57.
All 7 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Holland | Medic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betclic | France | 2.40 | 1.50 |
| DraftKings | US | 2.45 | 1.57 |
| FanDuel | US | 2.36 | 1.57 |
| Winamax | France | 2.25 | 1.49 |
| BetAnySports | — | 2.45 | 1.57 |
| BetOnline | — | 2.46 | 1.58 |
| Marathonbet | — | 2.41 | 1.50 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
 Kevin Holland | Uros Medic | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | WLLWW | WWWWL |
| Record outside the UFC | 13-3, 12 finishes | 6-0, 6 finishes |
| UFC record | 16-12 | 8-3 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1584 | 1599 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 4.53 | 4.79 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.62 | 3.47 |
| Striking accuracy | 48% | 56% |
| Striking defence | 50% | 56% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 0.85 | 0.60 |
| Takedown defence | 58% | 59% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.63 | 0.13 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.34 | 2.43 |
| Finish rate | 38% | 65% |
| Streak | W1 | W4 |
| Days since last fight | 218 | 106 |
| Age | 34 | 34 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'1" |
| Reach | 81" | 71" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.