CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Alex Pereira vs Sergei Pavlovich prediction
UFC 335 · Sunday, December 13, 2026. Our model gives Sergei Pavlovich a 57% chance to win.
Breakdown
Two heavy hitters meet here with different tools. Pereira lands more per minute (4.84 to 4.26) and is far more accurate (61% to 45%), but his striking defence is a modest 53%. Pavlovich counters with a huge knockdown rate (1.58 per 15 minutes against 0.71) and a five-inch reach edge (84 to 79 inches). Neither fighter is a serious grappler, though Pavlovich shoots more often (0.63 takedowns per 15 minutes) and holds more control time (13% to 3%). Both have been knocked out twice in the UFC, so either can end it with one clean shot.
Our model leans Pavlovich at 57%, driven mostly by three things: his knockdown power, his reach advantage, and a five-year age gap (Pereira is 39.4, Pavlovich 34.6). Pereira is on a one-fight losing skid while Pavlovich has won three straight. Elo ratings are nearly even (1665 to 1644), so this is a modest lean. The market is more confident at 64% for Pavlovich, a gap of 7 points that is within normal range. Pereira's accuracy edge is the main reason the model doesn't go further, and the model may underweight how age affects a fighter's chin and speed.
Key question: can Pereira close the reach gap and land clean first, or does Pavlovich's power from range decide it?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Sergei Pavlovich by KO/TKO (45%).
KO / TKO76%
Pereira 31%Pavlovich 45%
Submission4%
Pereira 2%Pavlovich 1%
Decision20%
Pereira 10%Pavlovich 10%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years.
What the market says
| Pereira | Pavlovich | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 43% | 57% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (median, no vig) | 36% | 64% |
Across 8 sportsbooks, Pereira is priced between 34% and 37%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Pereira2.64 (+164)at DraftKings · US →Typical price 2.62.
Pavlovich1.51 (−196)at DraftKings · US →Typical price 1.48.
All 8 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Pereira | Pavlovich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betclic | France | 2.50 | 1.46 |
| DraftKings | US | 2.64 | 1.51 |
| FanDuel | US | 2.58 | 1.49 |
| Unibet | France | 2.25 | 1.31 |
| Winamax | France | 2.60 | 1.43 |
| BetAnySports | — | 2.65 | 1.51 |
| BetOnline | — | 2.65 | 1.51 |
| Marathonbet | — | 2.74 | 1.43 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
 Alex Pereira |  Sergei Pavlovich | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | LWLWW | WWWLL |
| Record outside the UFC | 3-1, 3 finishes | 12-0, 9 finishes |
| UFC record | 10-3 | 9-3 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1665 | 1644 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 4.84 | 4.26 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.68 | 3.52 |
| Striking accuracy | 61% | 45% |
| Striking defence | 53% | 56% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 0.22 | 0.63 |
| Takedown defence | 77% | 68% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.24 | 0.10 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.70 | 1.58 |
| Finish rate | 57% | 54% |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Days since last fight | 182 | 197 |
| Age | 39 | 35 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'3" |
| Reach | 79" | 84" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.