CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa prediction
UFC 334 · Saturday, November 14, 2026. Our model gives Melquizael Costa a 68% chance to win.
Breakdown
Jared Gordon is the busier striker, landing 5.72 significant strikes a minute to Melquizael Costa's 4.17, and he leans on takedowns at nearly two per 15 minutes with 33% control time. Costa is the more dangerous finisher, with a 38% finish rate against Gordon's 18%, plus 0.80 submission attempts per 15 minutes and a bit more reach (71 inches to 68). Gordon has been knocked out four times and submitted twice in 17 UFC fights, which gives Costa clear paths to a finish. Both men are coming off losses.
Our model leans Costa at 68%, driven by three things: his higher Elo (1585 to 1525), his finishing threat, and the age gap of 30 against Gordon's 38. Gordon's volume and wrestling keep him live, and the model may underweight how much his experience matters. The market is more confident, at 78% for Costa. That 10-point gap likely reflects how much weight bettors put on Gordon's age and durability concerns, which our model only partly captures.
Key question: can Gordon's volume and wrestling control the pace for 15 minutes without walking into Costa's finishing chances?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Melquizael Costa by decision (37%).
KO / TKO27%
Gordon 9%Costa 18%
Submission17%
Gordon 4%Costa 13%
Decision56%
Gordon 19%Costa 37%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years.
What the market says
| Gordon | Costa | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 32% | 68% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (median, no vig) | 23% | 77% |
| Polymarket$5 traded | 20% | 80% |
Across 4 sportsbooks, Gordon is priced between 21% and 25%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Gordon4.35 (+335)at Betsson · EU →Typical price 4.13.
Costa1.20 (−500)at Betsson · EU →Typical price 1.22.
All 4 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Gordon | Costa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | EU | 4.35 | 1.20 |
| NordicBet | EU | 4.35 | 1.19 |
| BetOnline | — | 3.91 | 1.28 |
| Marathonbet | — | 3.72 | 1.23 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Jared Gordon | Melquizael Costa | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | LLWLW | LWWWW |
| Record outside the UFC | 12-1, 7 finishes | 19-5, 13 finishes |
| UFC record | 9-8 | 7-3 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1525 | 1585 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 5.72 | 4.17 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 4.50 | 3.20 |
| Striking accuracy | 52% | 47% |
| Striking defence | 55% | 51% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 1.94 | 1.50 |
| Takedown defence | 60% | 53% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.04 | 0.80 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| Finish rate | 18% | 38% |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Days since last fight | 189 | 182 |
| Age | 38 | 30 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'10" |
| Reach | 68" | 71" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.