CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Amanda Nunes vs Kayla Harrison prediction
UFC 334 · Sunday, November 15, 2026. Our model gives Kayla Harrison a 59% chance to win.
Breakdown
Nunes brings the far bigger UFC résumé: 18 fights, 4.46 significant strikes landed per minute against 2.50 absorbed, and real knockdown power at 0.56 per 15 minutes. Harrison's UFC sample is only three fights, so her numbers are heavily blended toward league averages and should be read as a small sample, not a full profile. What stands out is her control time share of 50% and her 1.81 strikes absorbed per minute. Nunes carries a 77% takedown defence, while Harrison's judo-based grappling is the obvious test of it. Both stand 68 inches, but Nunes has a 3-inch reach edge.
Our model leans Harrison at 59%, and the market is close at 63%, so there is no big disagreement. The drivers are Nunes's long layoff of 1,254 days, Harrison's recent form (a +3 streak against Nunes's +2), and Harrison's grappling control. Nunes's Elo of 1697 is higher than Harrison's 1587, so the model is not dismissing her. Age is similar, at 38.5 against 36.4. The model includes layoff and age, but it may underweight how much three-plus years away affects a fighter.
Key question: can Nunes keep the fight standing and use her power, or does Harrison's control take over?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Kayla Harrison by decision (30%).
KO / TKO22%
Nunes 9%Harrison 13%market 30%
Submission23%
Nunes 6%Harrison 17%market 33%
Decision55%
Nunes 25%Harrison 30%market 37%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years. Market numbers are sportsbooks' method-of-victory prices with the margin removed.
What the market says
| Nunes | Harrison | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 41% | 59% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (Pinnacle, no vig) | 37% | 63% |
| Kalshi$57k traded | 37% | 63% |
| Polymarket$8k traded | 37% | 63% |
Across 13 sportsbooks, Nunes is priced between 36% and 43%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Nunes2.65 (+165)at 888sport · UK/EU →Best in the US: 2.63 at BetRivers. Typical price 2.57.
Harrison1.53 (−189)at FanDuel · US →Typical price 1.51.
All 13 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Nunes | Harrison |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | UK/EU | 2.65 | 1.47 |
| BetRivers | US | 2.63 | 1.49 |
| Betclic | France | 2.40 | 1.50 |
| Betfair Exchange | UK/EU | 2.62 | 1.51 |
| Coolbet | EU | 2.65 | 1.51 |
| DraftKings | US | 2.60 | 1.52 |
| FanDuel | US | 2.46 | 1.53 |
| Unibet | France | 1.90 | 1.46 |
| Winamax | France | 2.40 | 1.48 |
| BetAnySports | — | 2.50 | 1.56 |
| BetOnline | — | 2.57 | 1.54 |
| Marathonbet | — | 2.52 | 1.50 |
| Pinnacle | — | 2.59 | 1.53 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
 Amanda Nunes |  Kayla Harrison | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | WWLWW | WWW |
| Record outside the UFC | 7-3, 7 finishes | 16-1, 12 finishes |
| UFC record | 16-2 | 3-0 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1697 | 1587 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 4.46 | 3.97 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.50 | 1.81 |
| Striking accuracy | 52% | 58% |
| Striking defence | 59% | 62% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 2.69 | 2.35 |
| Takedown defence | 77% | 71% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.72 | 0.80 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.56 | 0.08 |
| Finish rate | 53% | 50% |
| Streak | W2 | W3 |
| Days since last fight | 1254 | 526 |
| Age | 38 | 36 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'8" |
| Reach | 69" | 66" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.