CageIQ Who wins? Beat the AI
Cesar Almeida vs Donte Johnson prediction
UFC 334 · Saturday, November 14, 2026. Our model gives Donte Johnson a 75% chance to win.
Breakdown
Cesar Almeida is the taller man at 73 inches to Donte Johnson's 68, though their reach is identical at 74. Almeida lands a bit more on the feet (3.44 significant strikes a minute to 3.04) and is the more accurate striker at 58%, but he is also hit more often, with just 45% striking defence against Johnson's 60%. Johnson brings the wrestling: 1.70 takedowns per 15 minutes, 72% takedown defence and 26% control time, against Almeida's 52% takedown defence. Johnson's finish rate is 50% to Almeida's 31%.
Our model leans Johnson at 77% because of three things: his edge in striking defence, his clear grappling advantage, and a large age gap (27.8 versus 38.6), with Almeida also on a two-fight losing streak against Johnson's three straight wins. The market is far less sure, giving Johnson 58%, a 19-point gap. The likeliest reason is that the model only sees UFC fights, and Johnson has just three of them, so his numbers are a small sample blended toward league averages. The model does include age and layoff, but it may underweight how much Almeida's size and power can matter in a single exchange.
Key question: can Almeida keep the fight standing and use his height and accuracy, or does Johnson take him down and make age and grappling decide it?
Written by AI from the numbers and the scouting notes below. It doesn't make predictions of its own.
How it ends
Most likely result: Donte Johnson by KO/TKO (37%).
KO / TKO47%
Almeida 10%Johnson 37%
Submission14%
Almeida 3%Johnson 10%
Decision39%
Almeida 11%Johnson 28%
Win chance × how that fighter tends to win, against how the other tends to lose (knockdowns, submission attempts, takedowns vs. strikes absorbed and times stopped), plus the division. Tested on 2,506 fights (2022–2026): more accurate than division averages in 5 of 5 years.
What the market says
| Almeida | Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| CageIQ model | 25% | 75% |
| Fans | ||
| Sportsbooks (median, no vig) | 41% | 59% |
| Polymarket$117 traded | 40% | 61% |
Across 4 sportsbooks, Almeida is priced between 38% and 42%.
When our model picks a different winner than the opening line, the line has moved our way 62% of the time and away 31% (659 UFC fights, 2022–2026). It's not a betting edge: by fight night the price has usually caught up. How we measure it.
Where to bet
Best price right now at sportsbooks licensed in the US, UK or EU (as of Nov 7, 18:54 UTC). Prices move, so check before you bet.
Almeida2.27 (+127)at Betsson · EU →Typical price 2.35.
Johnson1.62 (−161)at Betsson · EU →Typical price 1.60.
All 4 sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Licensed in | Almeida | Johnson |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | EU | 2.27 | 1.62 |
| NordicBet | EU | 2.25 | 1.61 |
| BetOnline | — | 2.44 | 1.59 |
| Marathonbet | — | 2.44 | 1.49 |
Books without a link aren't licensed in a major regulated market, so we don't link to them or count them as the best price.
Plain links: no sportsbook pays us. Bet only where it's legal for you, 18+ (21+ in most US states). Our win chances aren't betting advice: the betting market picks winners better than our model (see our record).
Tale of the tape (UFC fights only)
| Cesar Almeida | Donte Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (newest first) | LLWWL | WWW |
| UFC record | 3-3 | 3-0 |
| Rating (Elo) | 1511 | 1569 |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.44 | 3.04 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.51 | 2.40 |
| Striking accuracy | 58% | 43% |
| Striking defence | 46% | 60% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 0.45 | 1.70 |
| Takedown defence | 52% | 72% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.29 | 0.59 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.25 | 0.49 |
| Finish rate | 31% | 50% |
| Streak | L2 | W3 |
| Days since last fight | 126 | 91 |
| Age | 39 | 28 |
| Height | 6'1" | 5'8" |
| Reach | 74" | 74" |
Rates for fighters with few UFC fights are blended toward league averages. The pick is logged with a timestamp before the event and graded on the track record, win or lose.